Ethereum (ETH) climbed back above the $2,300 mark on Wednesday after gaining more than 2% over the past 24 hours. Despite the bounce, the second-largest cryptocurrency has yet to reclaim its realized price of $2,309 — a closely watched on-chain threshold that represents the average acquisition cost of ETH based on its most recent movement across the blockchain.

Ethereum slipped below that level following last Thursday's $6.3 billion security breach at Binance, an incident that renewed uncertainty across the broader cryptocurrency market. The failure to recover the threshold has coincided with sustained withdrawals from US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reinforcing concerns about institutional demand.

While ETH continues to defend support near $2,250, its technical indicators suggest that sellers still retain the upper hand.

Ethereum struggles below its $2,309 realized price

Ethereum's recent price action has underscored the growing significance of its realized price, currently estimated at $2,309. According to CryptoQuant data, ETH dropped below this level in the wake of the Binance hack and has struggled to recover it over the past two days.

The realized price measures the value of coins based on the price at which they last moved on-chain, divided by the relevant coin supply. It is widely used as an approximation of the market's aggregate cost basis, although it does not capture every investor's actual purchase price.

When an asset trades above its realized price, the market is generally understood to be holding an aggregate unrealized profit. Conversely, a move below the indicator indicates that the average on-chain cost basis is higher than the prevailing market price — a dynamic that can shape investor behavior, particularly during periods of uncertainty.

Prior to last Thursday's decline, Ethereum had traded above its realized price for more than a week, with buyers repeatedly defending the level. The recent breakdown, however, has altered the short-term market structure. ETH has run into resistance around $2,309 during its recovery attempts, suggesting that some investors are using rebounds toward their cost basis to reduce exposure.

A sustained move back above the realized price would be an encouraging development, potentially signaling that buying demand is returning.

Institutional flows remain another major concern. According to SoSoValue data, US-listed spot Ethereum ETFs recorded nearly $85 million in net outflows on Tuesday, extending their withdrawal streak to seven consecutive trading days. The latest redemptions follow an especially difficult October, during which the funds posted a record $1.61 billion in monthly net outflows.

The sustained withdrawals indicate that investors have continued trimming their exposure to ETH through regulated investment products. Net outflows of this kind occur when daily redemptions from the funds exceed new share creations, and withdrawal streaks of this length are closely tracked as a gauge of institutional positioning in the asset. That makes the coming daily flow updates a natural checkpoint on whether demand through these regulated vehicles stabilizes — alongside the on-chain realized price at $2,309 — as ETH works to hold its recovery.

Ethereum holds $2,250 as bulls slowly regain control

Ethereum's daily technical outlook is slowly turning more constructive, even as ETH remains below several key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA stands at $2,352, while the 100-day EMA sits at $2,345. Both indicators converge near the horizontal resistance at $2,355, forming a concentrated supply zone that could cap recovery attempts. The 50-day EMA at $2,411 presents another significant hurdle.

Ethereum's position beneath these moving averages suggests that the short- and medium-term trends remain under pressure.

Momentum readings support that cautious view. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 39, below the neutral level of 50, while the Stochastic Oscillator near 34 indicates that upside momentum remains limited. Taken together, the indicators show that buyers have yet to regain meaningful control of the market.

The immediate support level for Ethereum stands at $2,250. A sustained defense of that area could allow ETH to consolidate and mount another recovery attempt toward its realized price at $2,309. A decisive daily close below $2,250, however, would weaken the near-term technical structure and expose the next support at $2,204. If selling pressure intensifies, Ethereum could extend its decline toward $2,107, with a deeper correction bringing the structural support levels at $1,971 and $1,827 into focus.

On the upside, buyers must first reclaim the $2,309 realized price to improve the immediate outlook. The next major resistance zone lies between $2,345 and $2,355, where the 100-day and 20-day EMAs converge with horizontal resistance. A sustained breakout above this area could pave the way for a recovery toward the 50-day EMA at $2,411. Beyond that, additional resistance levels are located at $2,548, $2,636, and $2,781.

Source: CoinJournal — Ethereum reclaims $2,300 as $1.61B ETF outflows weigh on recovery