Ethereum traded near $2,485 on September 8, remaining inside a $2,391-$2,514 range identified in a CryptoQuant analysis. The report recorded a September 7 close of $2,489 and found that ETH had stayed within the range for 14 consecutive sessions. The gap between the boundaries was approximately 5%.

The market is showing signs of constrained exchange-accessible supply, but spot buying has not yet confirmed a breakout. Binance recorded approximately $501 million in net ETH outflows across seven readings, while the share of ETH held in staking reached 35.24%. Ethereum is also trading above the estimated realized-price levels of three whale cohorts.

ETH remains in the upper half of a narrow range

Ethereum’s four-hour 50-period and 100-period simple moving averages were clustered near $2,465 and $2,466, respectively, less than 1% below the market price. That area represents the first short-term test. Holding above it would keep ETH in the upper half of its current range, while a decline below it would leave the token more exposed to another move toward the lower boundary.

The four-hour relative strength index was close to 51, indicating broadly balanced momentum rather than a strong directional bias. The price compression makes a close outside the range more significant, but neither the RSI nor the narrow range indicates which boundary will break first.

At approximately $2,485, ETH was about $29 below the $2,514 upper boundary and roughly $94 above support at $2,391. A daily close above $2,514 would end the two-week range, although price alone would provide limited confirmation of a breakout.

Stablecoin inflows accompany ETH leaving exchanges

Aggregate exchange flows showed an average net outflow of approximately 1,155 ETH per day, with withdrawals exceeding deposits in four of the five latest sessions. When ETH leaves exchange wallets and remains outside those venues, less of the asset is immediately available for trading.

At the same time, Binance received an average of $46.5 million in daily net stablecoin inflows during the previous week. That figure was 1,422% above the 30-day baseline and 581% above the quarterly average. The absolute inflow is more informative than those large percentage changes because comparatively low earlier baselines amplified the percentages.

The amount of ETH held on exchanges declined as stablecoin liquidity on Binance increased. That combination affects the supply side, but it does not establish that demand for ETH has increased. The stablecoins could be used to purchase ETH, trade other cryptocurrencies, provide derivatives collateral or transfer funds between accounts. Direct spot buying would provide stronger evidence of ETH demand.

Binance records $501 million in net ETH outflows

Binance provides the clearest example of the broader withdrawal trend. A separate CryptoQuant report identified seven negative Binance netflow readings between August 28 and September 8. Approximately $501 million worth of ETH left the exchange on a net basis across those readings, which did not occur on seven consecutive calendar days.

The largest outflow occurred on August 28, when Binance recorded negative ETH netflow of approximately $187 million. That was the exchange’s biggest daily outflow since June 5, when its netflow reached negative $207 million.

On June 5, OKX and Bybit also recorded approximately $97 million and $86 million in net withdrawals, respectively. The combined one-day outflow across the three exchanges was close to $390 million. ETH was trading below $1,600 at the time and later advanced by more than 55% toward $2,480.

The comparison has clear limits. The June figure covered one day across three exchanges, whereas the latest $501 million total covers seven readings from Binance alone. The earlier rally also does not establish that withdrawals caused the price increase or indicate that a similar result will follow the latest outflows.

The recent withdrawals are notable less because they resemble the June event than because they persisted across seven recent readings. They also extend a longer decline in exchange-accessible supply that continued during Ethereum’s earlier price weakness, as reported by Coindoo.

Staking further reduces immediately liquid supply

Exchange withdrawals affect where ETH is held, while staking commits part of the supply to network validation. CryptoQuant’s ETH staking rate reached 35.24%, the highest level in the reported period, after rising during every session since August 25.

The metric measures the share of total ETH supply held in the staking deposit contract. In combination with exchange outflows, the increase leaves fewer coins positioned for immediate sale. However, staked ETH is not permanently removed from circulation. Validators can exit, withdrawals are available, and liquid-staking tokens allow holders to retain tradable exposure to the underlying assets.

Whale realized prices identify lower on-chain cost-basis levels

Exchange balances and staking provide information about how much ETH is readily available, while realized prices indicate where large holders stand relative to the market. Another CryptoQuant analysis examined addresses holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH.

Ethereum’s August monthly close finished above the realized prices of all three whale groups included in the report. The estimated levels were approximately $2,300 for addresses holding 100 to 1,000 ETH, $2,200 for the 1,000-to-10,000 ETH group and $2,100 for holders of 10,000 to 100,000 ETH.

Realized price values coins at the market price when they last moved on-chain and divides the resulting realized capitalization by the cohort’s supply. It is an estimated on-chain cost basis, not the exact average price paid by each holder.

With ETH near $2,485, the token was trading above the estimated realized price of all three cohorts, placing those groups in aggregate on-chain profit relative to the reported levels. That does not show that whales are buying at present, and holders with unrealized gains may still sell.

If ETH closes below $2,391, the highest whale realized price, near $2,300, would become the first cost-basis area to monitor. The deeper cohort levels are around $2,200 and $2,100. The four-hour 200-period moving average near $2,233 also falls inside that wider band, creating an overlap between technical and on-chain levels. None of these levels guarantees support.

Spot indicators have not confirmed the supply shift

The Coinbase Premium Index was near negative 0.01. The indicator compares Ethereum’s dollar price on Coinbase with its USDT price on Binance. A positive premium means buyers are paying more on Coinbase, while a negative reading means Coinbase’s price is slightly below Binance’s.

The premium provides a separate measure of US-linked spot demand, but it does not show whether stablecoins deposited on Binance were used to purchase ETH. Its negative reading simply indicates that Coinbase was not providing a stronger bid at that point.

Binance funding was positive at approximately 0.01%, meaning traders holding long perpetual positions were paying traders holding shorts. The report said the rate had declined by 5.9% over 30 days but remained 62% above its quarterly mean. The positive rate indicates a bullish bias in derivatives, but funding alone cannot establish how crowded or leveraged the market has become.

A breakout supported by spot volume and a positive Coinbase premium would be less dependent on derivatives positioning. If funding accelerates while spot indicators remain weak, the move would rely more heavily on traders maintaining leveraged positions.

Spot demand will be important for the next range break

A daily close above $2,514, combined with rising spot volume, a sustained positive Coinbase premium and continued ETH exchange outflows, would indicate increasing demand while exchange-accessible supply remains constrained. Price movement by itself would provide less confirmation.

If ETH closes below $2,391, stronger bearish confirmation would come from positive exchange netflows alongside continued weakness in the Coinbase premium. That combination would indicate that coins were returning to trading venues without a compensating improvement in spot demand.

Until spot demand confirms either direction, the on-chain data describes the supply pressure around Ethereum’s range but does not determine how the range will break.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Source: Coindoo