Ethereum is holding above $2,600 after reclaiming a liquidity zone, with $3,400 identified as a conditional target and resistance located near $2,750 to $2,800. ETH traded at approximately $2,740.20 in the October 4 analysis.

The recovery has occurred while Binance futures continue to account for most reported trading activity. Futures are derivative contracts that let traders take directional exposure to an asset without holding it, which helps explain why their turnover typically runs well above spot levels on major exchanges. Analyst Amr Taha’s CryptoQuant review found that spot volume equaled only 8% of futures volume on October 1. CryptoPatel separately outlined potential Ethereum price levels of $10,000 to $15,000 during a future altseason, while noting that his roadmap depends on resistance breaks and intact structural support.

U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded provisional net outflows of $118 million in the week ending October 2. These funds hold ether directly and offer regulated exposure on U.S. exchanges, so a week of net outflows means money leaving the products exceeded money coming in. At the same time, Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade remains scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026, although its mainnet activation date has not been confirmed.

Ethereum Support Holds as Binance Futures Lead Activity

Taha’s CryptoQuant analysis shows ETH rising from $1,560 on June 27 to $2,700 on October 1. The move represented an increase of approximately 73%, or about $1,140, over the period.

During the same interval, Binance’s spot-to-futures volume ratio increased from 6.5% to 8%. The ratio compares the two trading volumes and does not represent spot activity as a share of their combined turnover. At an 8% ratio, futures volume was approximately 12.5 times spot volume. Assuming the same measurement window, spot trading represented roughly 7.4% of total turnover across the two markets.

The recovery therefore coincided with a modest increase in spot trading’s relative contribution. However, the ratio alone cannot establish whether absolute spot volume rose, declined, or remained unchanged. Differences in market size also limit what can be inferred about directional positioning. High futures turnover may reflect repeated trading or hedging and does not, by itself, prove excessive leverage.

Taha identified earlier ratio peaks of 45% on April 13, 2026, and 114% on November 14, 2025. The ratios later declined to approximately 36% and 45%, respectively. These sequences show a historical association but do not establish that increased spot participation caused either decline.

For Ethereum’s near-term structure, continued support above $2,600 would preserve the breakout case described in the analysis. A move below that zone would weaken the rationale for the $3,400 liquidity target. Resistance remains around $2,750 to $2,800.

ETF Outflows and Longer-Term Price Levels

CryptoPatel’s longer-term Ethereum price forecast points to $10,000 to $15,000 during a altseason. His roadmap also identifies $16,000 as a possible cycle peak around 2027 to 2028. The two-week candle gained 1.94%, recording a high of $2,773.97 and a low of $2,635.35.

Using $2,740.20 as the reference price, a move to $15,000 would require an increase of approximately 447%. Earlier cycles took ETH from roughly $10 to $1,400 in 2017, followed by a decline to $80. The subsequent recovery peaked near $4,800 in 2021 before reversing toward $880 in 2022.

The model connects Ethereum’s earlier advances with Bitcoin’s four-year halving pattern. It labels the current phase Wave 4 and projects a subsequent Wave 5 expansion. Under that framework, $3,945 is described as a major resistance level before possible moves toward $8,000 and $10,000. More distant levels at $32,000 and $60,000 fall outside the immediate trading setup.

The roadmap also places an accumulation area near $2,000 and structural support around $1,000. CryptoPatel’s bullish wave count would fail below the latter level.

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted approximately $118 million in net outflows for the week ending October 2, according to the provisional figures cited in the analysis. Farside’s provisional daily totals show a reversal from $689.8 million in inflows during the previous week. Provisional in this context means the daily figures are preliminary and subject to revision as finalized reporting comes in.

Lookonchain figures indicate that wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH controlled more than 14.2 million tokens. That aggregate holding does not show when the purchases occurred or identify the wallets’ owners.

Glamsterdam Development Schedule

Network development is another factor in the Ethereum outlook. Ethereum’s official roadmap places Glamsterdam in the fourth quarter of 2026 but does not provide a confirmed mainnet date. The Ethereum Foundation has scheduled activation on Sepolia for October 6, making that testnet activation the next dated milestone while the mainnet timeline remains unconfirmed.

Planned changes include enshrined proposer-builder separation, which separates the role of building a block’s contents from the role of proposing it to the network, and block-level access lists, which record the accounts and storage slots touched during block execution so that processing can be parallelized. These changes are intended to prepare the network for greater throughput and parallel processing.

The original analysis was published by Blockonomi: https://blockonomi.com/ethereum-price-holds-2600-as-binance-futures-dominate-trading/