Ethereum has gained 16% over the past month and is approaching a technical formation that has previously been followed by strong price recoveries, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

Martinez said ETH’s market value to realized value, or MVRV, ratio is close to making a bullish crossover above its 160-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that has historically been watched as a signal of improving holder profitability and renewed accumulation. MVRV compares Ethereum’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which values coins based on the price at which they last moved on-chain, making it a commonly used gauge of whether holders are broadly in profit or loss.

MVRV Signal Reappears in 2026

MVRV Momentum tracks the relationship between aggregate holder profitability and a medium-term trend line. Martinez explained that when the daily MVRV ratio rises back above the 160-day SMA, it can indicate a move out of capitulation and the beginning of a fresh accumulation phase. He noted that this is the first time the setup has appeared in 2026.

Over the past three years, crossovers above this level have repeatedly coincided with the end of distribution phases and have preceded major rebounds in ETH’s price. As with other on-chain indicators, the signal is typically used alongside liquidity, exchange-flow, and broader market data rather than as a standalone confirmation.

Large holders have also continued to add exposure. According to Lookonchain, an anonymous whale bought 27,000 ETH worth $52.03 million through Galaxy Digital’s over-the-counter desk after remaining inactive for three months. OTC purchases are often tracked because they can show large-scale demand without necessarily routing the full order through public exchange order books.

BSCN also reported that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes acquired another 644.34 ETH worth about $1.25 million, bringing his total purchases over the past eight days to 3,270 ETH. That followed an earlier $2.53 million ETH purchase and came alongside several other multi-million-dollar Ethereum purchases and staking activity reported earlier this week.

Prediction-market activity has also pointed to higher price expectations. Whale Insiders said Kalshi traders are forecasting that ETH could rise as high as $3,210 this year.

Separate data showed that investors withdrew around 1 million ETH, worth nearly $2 billion, from centralized exchanges over the past 30 days. The withdrawals pushed exchange balances to their lowest level in a decade. Lower exchange reserves are typically viewed as reducing potential selling pressure and supporting a bullish outlook, although withdrawals can also reflect custody, staking, or treasury-management decisions rather than immediate buying demand.

Institutional activity has also remained positive. Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded consistent net inflows this month, bringing in more than $380 million over the period. ETF flows are closely watched because they provide a regulated channel for traditional investors to gain ETH exposure without directly holding the asset.

Alternative Outlook

Not every analyst shares the same near-term view. Crypto analyst Nonzee argued that Ethereum could still stage one more rally before a deeper correction. He expects ETH to test $2,000, with a possible move to $2,200 if Bitcoin rises to $70,000. However, he said those levels would likely represent a bull trap rather than the start of a meaningful breakout.

According to his roadmap, Ethereum could spend seven to ten days in a distribution phase before dropping into a final bottom zone between $1,300 and $900, which he described as the ideal accumulation range. Despite that bearish short-term outlook, Nonzee maintained a long-term ETH price target of $7,000.