Ethereum remains in sharp focus after ETH recovered above $2,400 from a 24-hour low near $2,357. The rebound has fueled renewed debate over whether Ethereum has entered a broader bullish cycle following its reclaim of key weekly levels. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes now expects ETH to reach $10,000 by the end of 2026, tying that target to stronger dollar liquidity — a variable crypto analysts track closely because periods of expanding global dollar liquidity have historically coincided with stronger risk appetite across crypto and other speculative assets. Technical data nonetheless shows that Ethereum must hold key support and attract stronger spot demand before any such move gains wider confirmation.

ETH Price Holds Above $2,400

Ethereum traded near $2,406 after recovering from the $2,357 area, although trading volume eased during the move. Price action now centers on the $2,370 to $2,400 zone, which marks an important weekly structure. A sustained hold above that range would keep the current recovery intact and leave buyers in control of the short-term trend.

Analyst Ted Pillows' weekly ETH analysis shows the price testing a major resistance cluster around $2,547. A confirmed weekly breakout above this zone could open the way toward the next resistance near $2,800. A rejection from current resistance, however, would put the $2,200 area back in focus as the first major support, and if sellers push ETH below $2,200, $1,965 is the next downside level. The 50-week EMA near $2,373 also matters, as holding above it would help preserve the recent recovery structure.

Arthur Hayes Sets a $10,000 Ethereum Target

Arthur Hayes expects Ethereum to reach $10,000 by year-end. He tied the forecast to a possible rise in US dollar liquidity through Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion and Treasury bond buybacks, as outlined in his analysis. Hayes also expects the EURJPY exchange rate to fall from around 185 toward 140 or lower by mid-2027.

The US Treasury announced a $12.5 billion debt buyback on Thursday while officials continue to manage a large cash balance. Treasury buybacks of this kind, part of a program begun in 2024 to improve market functioning, can inject cash back into the financial system, which is the mechanism Hayes points to as supportive for dollar-sensitive assets. Hayes argues that currency intervention involving euro sales and yen purchases could add dollar liquidity to financial markets.

His target represents a large move from current levels, meaning ETH would need to clear several major resistance zones before approaching that price. Hayes also expects stronger liquidity conditions to support Ethena and Ether.fi, two crypto-native platforms whose yield-bearing products depend heavily on stablecoin demand and collateral conditions.

Supply Data Shows Lower Exchange Balances

Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to about 14.92 million ETH, the lowest level recorded in 2026. Lower exchange balances can reduce the amount of ETH available for immediate sale when demand increases. More than 42 million ETH now sits in staking contracts — roughly a third of Ethereum's total supply — keeping another large share of supply committed to the network.

Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs ended a 12-session inflow streak with about $48.2 million in net outflows. These funds, approved for US trading in mid-2024, have become a key channel for institutional ETH exposure, so shifts in their flows carry outsized weight for spot demand. Binance's estimated ETH leverage ratio has fallen from about 0.99 in June to 0.647, indicating less aggressive use of borrowed positions. Funding rates remain moderate, which reflects a bullish bias without extreme long positioning. ETF demand would need to recover to add stronger spot support.

Price Targets $3,250 After Breakout

Ethereum needs to protect the $2,320 area to preserve the current bullish structure. A break below that range would weaken the recovery and could shift attention toward lower support levels. Buyers also need stronger trading volume and a turn higher in on-balance volume to confirm stronger market demand.

On the upside, a move above the current resistance zone could open the path toward $3,250. Further buying could then bring $3,850 into view, followed by the $4,600 area under a stronger bullish scenario.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency and equity markets can experience sharp price movements.