First Higher High in More Than a Year

Ethereum (ETH) has done what it failed to do for more than a year: print a higher high. The asset peaked near $4,957 in August 2025, and every major rally since then stalled at a lower high — until this week, when ETH climbed to $2,807 on the ETHUSDT chart on Binance and finally broke the sequence. In market-structure terms, a chain of lower highs is what defines a downtrend, and reclaiming a higher high is the first structural step toward changing that picture.

According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, the move has carried ETH back into its long-term logarithmic regression band, the range he uses to gauge where the asset sits relative to its historical trend. “At least this cycle I don’t have to spend the whole time calling for ETH to go home, considering it’s already there,” he noted in a post on X: https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2102553581270208579

Cowen has previously said he favors dollar-cost averaging through the second half of the US midterm year while leaving room for another market shock later in Q4.

Demand beneath the move is broadening. Corporate treasuries continue adding to their Ethereum treasury positions, and US spot Ethereum ETFs just posted a record single-day inflow of $307.68 million, a flow category tracked as a gauge of institutional demand. The weekly RSI has climbed to 64, and per the analysis, a move above $2,920 would strengthen the case for a push toward $3,400.

One warning stands out: the daily RSI is printing lower highs while price makes higher highs — a bearish divergence — alongside falling volume. The RSI measures the momentum behind price moves, so a split of this kind is read as fading conviction in the advance rather than a confirmed reversal on its own. The key line sits near $2,440; holding it keeps the bullish structure intact, while losing it could expose the $1,950–$2,000 area.

10% Weekly Rally Meets Sellers at $2,800

A separate weekly analysis frames the same move from the demand side. ETH rallied roughly 10% over the week and tested the $2,800 resistance before sellers returned and pushed the price into a pullback — one that could still prove to be a brief pause before buyers press higher again.

With a higher high now secured, Ethereum is well on its way to recovering most of the losses incurred since 2025. The decisive condition, per that analysis, is straightforward: if the resistance at $2,800 flips into support, the asset would have a clear path toward $3,000 and beyond. The latest price action also appears to confirm $1,500 as the cycle bottom, setting the current uptrend up to target $3,300 and $4,000 as its next major milestones.

Within the broader altcoin market, ETH remains the reference asset — the most heavily used smart contract network in the sector — and its ability to absorb a 10% weekly gain without a deeper retracement is shaping risk appetite across the market. The tell at any retest of $2,800 is volume: acceptance above the level, rather than another wick-and-reject, is what would validate the $3,000–$3,300 corridor in the weekly roadmap.

Key Levels After the $2.8K Rejection

ETH is consolidating around $2,640 after a sharp recovery from the $1.5K area and a breakout above the $2.1K region that accelerated in August. September’s consolidation has become an important trend reference, and the latest pullback landed directly inside the $2.6K–$2.7K resistance zone following the rejection near $2.8K. A sustained daily close above that area would strengthen the breakout structure and leave the $3K region as the next immediate resistance.

On the downside, the first support is the consolidation area at $2.4K–$2.5K. A deeper correction would bring ETH toward $2.1K, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are converging toward a potential bullish crossover — the level the market must hold to avoid slipping back into a downward spiral.

The 4-hour chart shows ETH rallying from roughly $2.4K to $2.8K then failing to hold those highs and retreating to the lower portion of the zone. A recovery above $2.7K refocuses the short-term highs at $2.8K, while continued rejection targets the bullish order block at $2.45K and, below that, $2.25K. The 4-hour RSI has deteriorated from overbought readings to below 50 — a loss of short-term momentum rather than a confirmed reversal.

On-chain data adds a structural note: the exchange supply ratio — the share of ETH sitting on trading venues — has fallen from roughly 0.18 in early 2025 to about 0.123, near its lowest levels even as price recovered above $2.5K. Separately, an anonymous whale moved $120 million worth of Ethereum from Galaxy Digital’s OTC desk, where large block trades are executed off the public order books, into a single wallet this week.

COINOTAG Composite: The $2,820 Wall

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $2,820.16 resistance at 80/100 — STRONG — on the confluence of Fibo 0.000, Donchian Upper and Swing High sources, while the nearer $2,703 flip zone scores 52/100 (Flip S→R, Pivot Point, BB Upper). The first support at $2,659.67 carries a 78/100 STRONG rating (Flip R→S, Fibo 0.114, MACD Cross).

Spot trades at $2,691.72, up 0.32% in 24 hours, with RSI at 63.26, a bullish MACD signal and the trend classified as up. Derivatives positioning is constructive but leveraged: funding at 0.0007% (a positive rate, meaning perpetual longs pay shorts to hold their positions), open interest of $11.13 billion and a long/short account ratio of 1.53 (60.4% long) sit against a Fear & Greed reading of 71 — Greed.

Per the composite framework, the bullish case needs a hold above $2,659.67 to force a retest of $2,820; a decisive daily close below $2,585.05 (63/100, EMA 20, Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun) would invalidate it.