Ethereum Breaks Below $2,200 Amid Binance Hack as $2,100 Level Comes Into Focus

Ethereum dropped below $2,200 on Friday, losing nearly 3% as investors assessed persistent US inflation and the prospect of another Federal Reserve rate increase, with the decline compounded by a hack on Binance. The session illustrates how macro policy expectations and exchange-level security events can feed into a single move, leaving traders weighing two distinct risk threads at once: the policy path and counterparty exposure.

Sticky Inflation Keeps Rate Hike Odds Elevated

September's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.5% month over month and 3.6% year over year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which is why its monthly readings carry outsized weight in shaping rate expectations.

Following the release, CME FedWatch figures showed an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting. CME FedWatch derives those probabilities from pricing in fed funds futures, making it one of the most widely cited real-time barometers of policy expectations. The data followed the central bank's Wednesday 10–2 decision to hold interest rates unchanged, leaving investors facing the prospect of restrictive policy continuing despite the October pause. For crypto markets, the December meeting now stands as the next major macro checkpoint.

Futures Selling Pressure Persists Despite Positive Funding

CryptoQuant data shows continued sell-side pressure in Ethereum's Binance perpetual futures market. The 30-day moving average of $ETH Net Taker Volume, an indicator measuring the difference between aggressive buying and selling through market orders, reached a four-month low of approximately negative $166.6 million on October 16 before improving to negative $117.3 million on Wednesday. The continued negative reading suggests sellers remain more active, even though the imbalance has narrowed.

Funding rates have nevertheless stayed positive, meaning longs are paying shorts. That indicates demand for leveraged long exposure but does not establish a long-term bullish outlook. Open interest has remained around 12.7 million $ETH for much of October following September's decline, suggesting outstanding exposure has broadly stabilized in token terms.

US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $21.4 million in net outflows on Wednesday, and another $105.48 million withdrawn on Thursday, extending their withdrawal streak to four sessions. Spot ETF flows are tracked closely because creations and redemptions offer a near real-time read on demand for Ethereum exposure through regulated investment vehicles. The continued redemptions point to subdued demand for those investment products as Ethereum struggles to recover.

Derivatives traders also experienced substantial forced closures. $ETH liquidations totaled $360.5 million over the last 24 hours, with longs accounting for $305 million — approximately 84.7% of the total. Liquidations occur when an exchange forcibly closes a leveraged position after losses deplete its margin, and long closures mechanically translate into selling. The concentration of losses among bullish positions highlights how the decline caught leveraged traders expecting a rebound.

The bearish trend was further escalated by Binance's hack, with attackers draining roughly $6 billion from the cryptocurrency exchange. Security incidents of this scale typically add a counterparty-risk dimension to trading decisions, and any further disclosure from the exchange is a natural focal point for market participants in the days ahead.

Ethereum Trades Below All Four Key Moving Averages

$ETH's daily technical structure remains bearish, with price below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages. The 200-day EMA is among the most widely followed long-term trend gauges in both traditional and crypto markets, and extended trade below it is conventionally read as a bearish structural signal. The 200-day EMA near $2,310 is the first important level buyers need to recover. Above it, resistance sits at $2,355, with the 100-day EMA around $2,360. The 20-day EMA at $2,409 and the 50-day EMA near $2,443 create further obstacles to a sustained recovery.

On the downside, immediate support lies around $2,200. That level was briefly broken, but price rebounded almost instantly. A daily candle close below it could bring $2,107 into focus, followed by deeper technical floors at $1,972 and $1,854.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 29, below the conventional oversold threshold of 30, while the Stochastic Oscillator reads 14, placing it in oversold territory. These readings suggest selling momentum is stretched, but neither confirms that a reversal has begun.

Holding support near $2,205 and reclaiming the 200-day EMA would provide initial evidence of stabilization. Until then, negative futures order flow and persistent ETF withdrawals leave the recovery outlook cautious. Between the Fed's December meeting, whether the ETF outflow streak extends, and any further disclosure from Binance about the hack, the coming sessions offer several concrete markers for gauging whether the current balance of pressures begins to shift.