Ethereum could target $5,000 if it clears a major resistance zone between $2,722 and $2,970, analyst Ali said in a post on X. A move to that level would carry ETH past its 2021 all-time high near $4,878.

The analysis follows a stretch of whale accumulation and sustained exchange outflows. Addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH rose 1.74% over the past week, more than 180,764 ETH left exchanges in the same period, and an Aug. 19 MVRV crossover preceded a 34% price gain. Ali also identified $2,235 as potential support before further upside.

MVRV Crossover Preceded a 34% Rise

On Aug. 19, Ethereum's MVRV Ratio — a widely tracked on-chain measure that compares market value with realized value, the aggregate cost basis of coins on the network — crossed above its 160-day moving average, and a 34% rise followed. ETH had traded near $1,880 to $1,900 between Aug. 16 and Aug. 19, before breaking through the $2,000, $2,100 and $2,200 levels. The price later climbed from $1,905 to $2,547 and reached the $2,500 to $2,520 area before settling into a sideways range. Whale accumulation and exchange withdrawals increased over the same stretch.

Whale Buying Adds to Ethereum's Recent Advance

Ali said the number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH rose 1.74% over the past week, adding 17 new whale addresses to the network. During the same period, more than 180,764 ETH left exchanges, a flow pattern that on-chain analysts typically read as coins moving into self-custody rather than sitting on platforms ready for sale. Ali valued those withdrawals at roughly $440 million and cited them alongside rising whale holdings.

$2,722 to $2,970 Becomes the Main Hurdle

Ali identified $2,722 to $2,970 as Ethereum's main resistance zone. URPD data, which maps the price levels at which existing ETH holdings last changed hands on-chain, shows that 16.70 million ETH previously changed hands across this range, meaning a sustained move above the zone would remove the supply wall he identified.

He said the next major MVRV pricing band sits near $5,363 at the 2.4 MVRV level. However, Ali also noted that Ethereum could first fall toward its realized price near $2,235 — effectively the network's average on-chain cost basis — a move he described as reasonable before a possible advance toward the 2.4 MVRV band.

The latest market data places ETH near $2,456. Support sits around $2,400 to $2,420, while deeper support remains near $2,300 to $2,350.

Momentum Remains Positive but Measured

ETH's RSI stands at 54.91, with its average near 54.52. The reading remains above the neutral 50 level without reaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD shows limited short-term momentum: its histogram is at -0.02, while the MACD and signal lines sit at 6.18 and 6.21, respectively.

The $2,500 to $2,520 area remains immediate resistance on hourly readings. A break above that zone would strengthen the near-term advance, while failure could keep ETH ranging or pull it toward $2,400.