"Ethereum is cheap, but the data says the bottom isn't in yet," onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant stated on Thursday.

ETH is currently trading approximately 17% below its realized price, "but only two of five signals have reached historical bottoming levels," the firm noted. "Selling pressure is easing. Capitulation is still missing."

Realized Price and Bottoming Signals

ETH's realized price — a metric measuring the average cost basis of every token currently in circulation based on its last onchain movement — stands at $2,300. Historically, trading below this level signals broad holder losses, a condition that tends to exhaust sellers and mark cycle bottoms.

Trading below the aggregate cost basis means the marginal holder is sitting on unrealized losses, "which historically exhausts sellers and compresses downside," the analysts explained.

However, cheapness alone has never been a sufficient indicator. According to CryptoQuant, the timing of a bottom has consistently depended on Ethereum's relative position to Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC Metrics Not Yet at Extremes

The ETH/BTC pair is widely tracked as a barometer of risk appetite across the crypto market: when ETH outperforms BTC, it typically signals bullish sentiment toward higher-risk digital assets, while sustained underperformance reflects a flight-to-quality dynamic that has preceded past ETH cycle troughs.

The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has declined from "extreme overvaluation to neutral," but has not reached levels associated with extreme cheapness.

Similarly, the exchange inflow ratio has fallen from over 1.5 to approximately 0.8 as selling pressure has moderated. However, it has not yet approached the ~0.4 low-pressure zone observed at past market bottoms.

Spot volume ratios have collapsed to levels last seen during prior ETH/BTC bottoms, but the remaining three signals have not confirmed comparable readings.

CryptoQuant concluded that while ETH remains fundamentally inexpensive, a "final bottom and the ETH outperformance that would follow may still take more time to form."

"ETH is approaching undervalued levels relative to Bitcoin, which points to lower downside pressure ahead," the analysts added.

Institutional Fundamentals Remain Strong

On the fundamental side, Ethereum continues to benefit from growing real-world asset tokenization and agentic AI payment narratives. The launch of spot ETH exchange-traded funds in the United States in mid-2024 further expanded regulated institutional access to the asset.

"Ethereum has the characteristics that institutions need," said Sharplink CEO Joseph Chalom on Thursday. "I don't know a lot for certain in life, but I spent 20 years at BlackRock. And I know for sure, before you move financial rails that are 40, 50, 60 years old, you want it to move to something that's trusted, always on, secure, with the most liquidity."

Sharplink resumed its Ethereum accumulation in late June, purchasing 10,000 ETH worth approximately $16 million.

Price Action

Despite the supportive fundamentals, ETH prices have retreated this week. The asset pulled back from a seven-week high of $1,950 on Wednesday to $1,860 during early Asian trading on Friday morning.

ETH has declined nearly 3% on the day but remains up 12% over the past 30 days. Reclaiming the $2,000 psychological level would be needed to signal further upward momentum.