Bitcoin and altcoins have seen sharp declines since last October, with BTC dropping to $57,000 and Ethereum falling to $1,400. As investors look for signs of a potential recovery, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant has released its latest assessment of Ethereum's market position.

According to the CryptoQuant report, ETH has reached more attractive valuation levels relative to Bitcoin, with valuation ratios against BTC falling to historically low thresholds that could represent a meaningful opportunity for long-term investors. However, the data does not yet confirm a market bottom.

CryptoQuant analysts note that despite the significant price decline, a classic capitulation event — characterized by forced selling and panic-driven volume spikes — has not materialized in the market, making it premature to conclude that bottom formation is complete. In previous ETH bear cycles, such capitulation events often preceded recovery phases.

The report highlights four key on-chain indicators:

Cost Basis: ETH is currently trading around $1,900, approximately 17% below its realized price of $2,304 — the average acquisition cost across all existing coins based on when they last moved on-chain — placing it in the lower half of its current price range. Analysts observe that this zone has historically been associated with market lows and asymmetric rallies.

ETH/BTC MVRV Ratio: Ethereum has shifted from an overvalued position relative to Bitcoin to a generally neutral one. The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio, which compares each asset's market value to its realized value to gauge relative over- or undervaluation, peaked near 0.95 in August 2025 and has since declined to approximately 0.65. However, this still sits above the ~0.45 threshold that has marked previous ETH cycle lows.

Selling Pressure: The ETH/BTC inflow rate — tracking the relative pace at which ETH versus BTC moves onto exchanges, typically a signal of intent to sell — has dropped from above 1.5 in August 2025 to roughly 0.8, which reduces downside risk. Nevertheless, it remains above the ~0.4 level associated with low selling pressure zones seen at prior market bottoms.

Institutional Demand: The ETH/BTC ETF asset ratio declined from ~0.20 in August 2025 to ~0.115 in June 2026, reflecting a period during which institutional investors favored Bitcoin over Ethereum. Since late June, however, the ratio has risen to 0.13, indicating renewed institutional interest in ETH — though at levels that remain insufficient to independently support a sustained price recovery.

CryptoQuant analysts also noted that on-chain data shows investor panic selling has been less intense than in previous bear markets. Traders will be watching whether the key thresholds across these indicators — roughly 0.45 for the MVRV ratio and 0.4 for the inflow rate — are reached in coming weeks, as convergence at those levels has historically accompanied confirmed ETH cycle bottoms.

Beyond on-chain metrics, the report emphasizes that macroeconomic factors — including the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, dollar liquidity conditions, and ETF inflows — also play a significant role in determining whether Ethereum has reached its cycle low.

*This is not investment advice.