The Jeffrey Epstein scandal that once helped power Donald Trump's political comeback played a real role in the Republicans' midterm rout on Tuesday — an election that historically functions as a referendum on the party holding the White House — according to GOP insiders, pollsters, and operatives who spoke to The Atlantic. Epstein, a financier and convicted sex offender, died in federal custody in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, leaving behind a trove of investigative records that his supporters have long sought.

A Republican close to the White House described the Epstein issue as the "nuclear fuel" behind a new brand of American populism. According to the magazine, the issue first lifted Trump, but this week it turned against him, "bringing him down to the lowest point of his presidency," as many of his voters came to view his handling of the case as a betrayal.

Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told The Atlantic that Epstein became "a proxy for corruption" during the campaign. Rich Baris, director of Big Data Poll, traced the first fracture in the MAGA coalition to July 2025, when the Justice Department and FBI announced there would be no further Epstein disclosures. The Iran war that followed, Baris said, made it "a devastating one-two punch."

That marked a stark contrast with Trump's campaign-trail pledges. He promised to release the Epstein files and filled his administration with figures who had stoked interest in the case, including Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, and JD Vance. Once in power, the process sputtered. Attorney General Pam Bondi said the supposed client list was on her desk, only for the administration to reverse course months later with little explanation.

Trump then lashed out at his own base on Truth Social, his social media platform, writing of past supporters who believed the story: "I don't want their support anymore!" Some former backers told pollsters that the message deepened their suspicions. Trump later tried to block Congress from voting to release the files, relenting only once enough Republicans broke ranks to pass the measure.

Even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the party should have voted to release the files sooner, calling the election as close to an "extinction-level event" for Republicans in parts of the country as any in probably a century.

Democrats seized on the issue, branding their opponents the "Epstein class." AdImpact, a service that monitors political advertising, tracked at least $76 million in ads mentioning Epstein, overwhelmingly from Democrats, with the scandal surfacing in at least 79 races across 26 states.

The White House pushed back. Spokesperson Lauren Bis said that "President Trump has done more for Epstein's victims than anyone before him." The Atlantic also noted that the Iran war and soaring gas prices may have been most voters' top concerns.

Democrats now face their own test. Rep. Jamie Raskin, expected to chair the House Judiciary Committee — the panel that holds jurisdiction over the Justice Department — plans to press the Justice Department to release roughly 2.5 million remaining Epstein-related documents. Committee chairs in the House majority can issue subpoenas compelling documents and testimony from executive agencies, including the Justice Department. The department maintains it has already released everything the law requires.

Robert Garcia, the incoming House Oversight chair, summed up his plans in two words: "Lawyer up."