Enphase Energy reports second-quarter results after Tuesday’s market close, and expectations are modest at best. The stock trades around $36, well below its 52-week high of $73.74.

Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.47 on revenue of $290 million for the quarter ended June 30. That would represent a 32% decline in earnings and a 20% drop in revenue compared with the same period last year.

On a sequential basis, revenue would rise about 2.5% from Q1’s $282.9 million, offering a small improvement in an otherwise difficult environment.

Enphase beat expectations in the first quarter, reporting $0.47 per share versus the $0.44 consensus, a roughly 9% upside surprise. Investors will now be watching to see whether the company can repeat that result and whether management’s commentary points to any stabilization in demand.

GLJ Research remains cautious. The firm raised its price target to $24.47 from $21.70 but kept a Sell rating. Its Q2 revenue estimate of $279 million is below the consensus estimate and sits at the low end of management’s guidance range of $280 million to $310 million.

GLJ also expects non-GAAP gross margin of 43.0%, below the Street’s 43.5% estimate and under Enphase’s guided range of 44% to 47%. The firm projects EPS of $0.43, four cents below consensus.

The analyst cited installation proxy data, Chinese supply statistics, and margin data from Enphase’s largest residential storage competitor as the basis for the cautious view.

Not all analysts are as bearish. Wall Street’s consensus rating remains Buy, with a mean price target of $48.93. That implies nearly 29% upside from current levels.

U.S. Solar Demand in Focus

The residential solar market grew just 6% year over year in Q1 2026. Analysts now expect residential installations to decline 18% for the full year after the expiration of the Section 25D tax credit, making the near-term setup for residential solar vendors more dependent on execution, product mix, and regional demand trends.

TD Cowen cut its price target from $70 to $48 while keeping a Hold rating. The firm pointed to building permit data that did not show the usual Q2 pickup in demand.

Bank of America noted a 15% decline in Chinese solar exports in June, although export value rose 9%, suggesting a shift in overseas demand rather than a broad collapse.

Europe and New Products as Offsets

Europe could provide some support. Energy security concerns are driving demand for battery storage systems across the region, and Enphase has been active there.

The company recently upgraded European IQ Battery systems to add home backup capability, launched the IQ9N Microinverter in Australia and New Zealand, and introduced the IQ EV Charger 2 across European markets.

On the product side, Enphase is ramping its fifth-generation battery, the IQ9 microinverter with gallium nitride technology, and the IQ Solid-State Transformer platform for AI data centers. However, the data center opportunity is not expected to generate volume until 2028.

Investors will be closely watching the revenue split by geography and the balance between microinverters and batteries when Enphase reports Tuesday evening, since those details can help show how the company is navigating a softer U.S. residential backdrop.

TD Cowen’s updated $48 price target and GLJ Research’s Sell-rated $24.47 target frame the range of expectations heading into the report.