Drought brought on by the prevailing very strong El Niño is expected to affect the entire Philippines by April, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Speaking at a virtual briefing on Tuesday, Joanne Mae Adelino, a weather specialist from PAGASA's climate monitoring and prediction section, said 26 areas will experience drought starting December. The number is projected to climb to 48 in January and reach up to 68 in February.

"From March to April, we expect that drought is expected all over the country," she said, speaking in Filipino during a virtual climate outlook.

Under PAGASA's classification, drought conditions mean an area receives way below normal rainfall for three consecutive months, or below normal rainfall for five consecutive months, the agency explained in an earlier climate advisory. Because classification requires sustained rainfall deficits over consecutive months, the agency's escalating monthly counts offer a measurable way to track how quickly conditions are spreading across the country.

Limited rainfall is among the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, which involves the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The current episode is in a very strong state and is likely to persist until the first half of 2027, meaning the December-to-April outlook serves as a checkpoint timeline for agencies and the public as conditions develop.

As of October, five areas in the country were already experiencing drought, while 11 areas recorded dry spells and 10 experienced dry conditions. Warmer temperatures are also expected nationwide during the event.

PAGASA urged the public and concerned agencies to implement appropriate sectoral interventions, along with conservation and mitigation measures — particularly water conservation — amid El Niño's threat to the country's water security.

The Department of Health also reminded the public to watch out for symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke due to the expected higher heat index.

With drought projected to extend nationwide by April, warmer temperatures expected alongside it, and the very strong episode itself expected to run into 2027, the outlook places water conservation and heat-safety awareness at the center of the country's El Niño preparedness.

— Edg Adrian A. Eva, BusinessWorld

Source: Drought may grip PHL by April, BusinessWorld, November 10, 2026.