Ship & Bunker has raised its outlook for global bunker prices after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lifted its Brent crude forecast in the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), reversing much of the optimism over easing supply disruptions that drove last month's cuts.

Ship & Bunker now expects the G20-VLSFO index to average $705/mt in Q3 2026, up from $101/mt — roughly 17% — from last month's outlook.

The EIA raised its Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $85.21/bbl, an increase of $11/bbl from its July outlook. The revision reversed much of the $27/bbl cut made last month on expectations that Strait of Hormuz disruptions would ease. Since then, however, conditions in the region have worsened and supply constraints have remained in place. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints, handling roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption at typical throughput levels.

The agency now sees Brent averaging $85.21/bbl in Q3 2026 and $78.00/bbl in Q4, compared with $74.03/bbl and $70.00/bbl respectively in the July STEO. For full-year 2026, the Brent forecast has been increased to $86.81/bbl from $81.91/bbl. The 2027 forecast has also been lifted, to $69.39/bbl from $64.76/bbl.

EIA said it now assumes severe constraints on Hormuz transits will continue through August. Its data shows closure-related shut-ins peaked at more than 10 million b/d between March and May, then eased to around 5.5 million b/d in July. Disruptions are forecast to average 6.6 million b/d in Q3, before falling to 4.2 million b/d in Q4 and 1.6 million b/d in Q1 2027.

Even once most regional production returns to near pre-conflict levels in early 2027, the EIA expects ongoing disruptions of about 600,000 b/d to continue through the end of that year.

The agency also increased its estimates of Middle East shut-in crude production from last month. It said the lost supply has driven a sharp drawdown in global oil inventories, which it estimates fell by an average of 4.2 million b/d in Q2, with a further 3.8 million b/d decline expected in Q3. EIA said that should keep prices elevated until flows normalize and stocks are replenished.

Brent crude fell to as low as $69/bbl in early July before rising later in the month as the scale of the disruption became clearer. EIA expects prices to hold near early-August levels through Q3 before easing as traffic through the strait gradually recovers.

Bunker price implications

Based on the updated crude outlook, Ship & Bunker now forecasts VLSFO prices at primary bunkering ports, as tracked by the G20-VLSFO Index, to average $705/mt in Q3 2026 and $646/mt in Q4. Those forecasts are up from $604/mt and $571/mt respectively in last month's outlook. VLSFO (Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil) has been the dominant global marine fuel since the International Maritime Organization's 2020 sulfur cap required ships to use fuels with no more than 0.5% sulfur content. Fuel costs typically rank among the largest operating expenses for shipowners, meaning crude-driven shifts in bunker prices flow directly into vessel operating economics.

For full-year 2026, the revised EIA forecast implies a G20-VLSFO average of $718/mt, compared with $668/mt in the July outlook. The 2027 average is now seen at $574/mt, up from $528/mt previously.

In Singapore, the world's largest marine fuel hub by volume, Ship & Bunker forecasts VLSFO to average $666/mt in Q3 and $678/mt for full-year 2026, up from $566/mt and $627/mt respectively in the July outlook.

At Rotterdam, the key European hub, the Q3 VLSFO forecast is $602/mt and the full-year forecast is $613/mt, compared with $520/mt and $575/mt last month.

Ship & Bunker also now forecasts the G20-HSFO Index to average $593/mt in Q3 and $605/mt for full-year 2026, up from $512/mt and $567/mt respectively. The G20-MGO Index is forecast at $1,103/mt in Q3 and $1,124/mt for the full year, compared with $930/mt and $1,029/mt previously.

Current G20-VLSFO prices stand at $861.50/mt, with VLSFO priced at $847.50/mt in Singapore and $660.00/mt in Rotterdam.

Ship & Bunker publishes bunker price forecasts for every port and index it covers, based on Brent forecasts from the monthly EIA STEO. The forecasts are derived from the average price relationship between each fuel and Brent over the previous 12 months.