Fortune’s morning briefing

Disney, dethroned: Dubai takes the Magic Kingdom’s crown for the world’s most-visited theme park

Disney’s Magic Kingdom in Orlando has been overtaken as the world’s most-visited theme park by Dubai’s Global Village, an attraction that began as a small pop-up fair in a parking lot, according to Chris Sylt’s Fortune report.

For more than two decades, the Magic Kingdom held the title of theme park with the highest annual attendance, based on data from the Themed Entertainment Association (TEA). Although the park’s position as the leading attraction by annual attendance is not in doubt, new analysis indicates that it is not the undisputed leader previously assumed.

Disney remains the theme park operator with the highest combined attendance by a wide margin. Its 14 parks in four countries welcomed 145.2 million guests in 2024, according to the TEA’s latest data. The flagship is the Magic Kingdom in Florida, which averaged 48,732 visitors per day in 2024.

Global Village, however, averaged 49,505 visitors per day after attracting 10 million people over only 202 days. The attraction is closed during Dubai’s extremely hot summer. Its typical operating hours are also 38% shorter than those of the Magic Kingdom, giving Global Village roughly 33% higher attendance per hour. The comparison shows how attendance rankings can shift depending on whether they are measured per day, per hour, or across a full operating year.

Kalshi could be worth $42 billion as it eyes an IPO

Prediction-market company Kalshi received a $1 billion investment in May at a valuation of $22 billion, and investors are watching for an initial public offering as soon as next year. An analysis by PitchBook indicates that the company could be worth as much as $42 billion, according to Fortune’s Jeff John Roberts.

That valuation depends on Kalshi navigating a looming Supreme Court case that could give individual U.S. states the authority to regulate its business. The case matters because it could determine whether the prediction-market platform—where traders take positions on the outcomes of real-world events—answers to state-by-state oversight, a structure that would shape how broadly its markets can operate. With an offering eyed as soon as next year, the Supreme Court docket is the near-term development to watch.

Meta advances the post-smartphone hardware race

Some emerging technologies feel meaningfully different the first time they are used. Meta’s most advanced smart glasses are one example. The glasses project a high-resolution digital box inside the right lens and, with the help of a smart wristband, allow users to control objects on the display by moving their fingers. Tapping the pointer finger and thumb together opens an app.

Fortune’s Sebastian Herrera described the experience in a report on Meta’s smart glasses and wearables. Separately, Meta debuted “Muse Charm,” which brings its viral assistant to a keychain, according to Axios. The two debuts sit within the broader post-smartphone hardware race, as technology companies compete to define the next generation of consumer devices beyond the phone.

AI hyperscalers are running out of time to recoup their investments

When will the artificial-intelligence boom—or bubble—end? Oxford Economics’ Ben May believes the answer could be next year.

The hyperscalers financing the boom currently have aggregate negative free cash flow—cash generated after capital spending—May said in a recent research paper. They therefore need to generate substantial profits to achieve a reasonable return on investment. Based on cumulative investment of about $3.8 trillion from 2024 through 2028, the hyperscalers would need to produce an additional $570 billion to $800 billion in profits each year to achieve those returns, he said.

“Based on the dotcom experience, AI will need to generate substantial productivity gains soon—arguably as early as next year—to justify the elevated returns that investors and the AI firms themselves expect,” May said.

However, $570 billion or more in additional annual profits may not be forthcoming, according to estimates from Inigo Fraser Jenkins of AllianceBernstein. In a recent note, Fraser Jenkins said the hyperscalers’ cloud-revenue backlog had exceeded $2 trillion.

“If we assume a five-year time frame for the realization of this backlog, then it implies a run rate of $400 billion per year,” he said. That figure represents revenue, not profit, leaving the industry more than $170 billion short of the minimum profit level May estimates would be required. The gap turns on the difference between revenue booked and profit retained, and it frames the question both analyses hinge on: whether AI delivers substantial productivity gains quickly enough to justify the spending.

Global markets sell off as bond-market concerns intensify

Stocks fell globally as oil prices rose to $105 per barrel and talks between the United States and Iran showed little progress toward ending the war. Bonds also sold off sharply.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 15.2 basis points the previous day—a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point—as investors demanded increasingly large risk premiums, the extra compensation for holding an asset perceived as carrying more risk, to hold U.S. government debt. The yield stood at 5.137% in the morning, while yields on the five-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities were all above 5%. Foreign government bonds followed the move.

Strong data on purchasing-manager expectations—a macroeconomic indicator the market usually overlooks—also led traders to conclude that future Federal Reserve interest-rate increases were more likely.

Although bond prices fell suddenly, bond yields are not historically high. Investors are concerned about the direction of yields rather than their current level.

“For Gen Z bond traders, a 0.15-percentage point rise in yields is scary. For Gen X bond traders, it is mild,” UBS’s Paul Donovan told clients that morning.

S&P 500 futures were down 0.6% in morning trading after the index fell 0.75% the previous day. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.56% in early trading, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.21% before midday.

South Korea’s KOSPI was closed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.76%, India’s Nifty 50 fell 1.63%, and China’s CSI 300 declined 1.73%.

Brent crude traded at $105 per barrel, up from $99 the previous day. Bitcoin was priced at $83,598. The chart was attributed to CNBC.

U.S. jobs data is usually revised lower

On the first Friday of each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest nonfarm-payrolls figure, which measures the number of jobs created by the economy during the previous month.

A chart from Pantheon Macroeconomics shows that the initial figure is usually revised lower. As late survey responses arrive, the BLS updates the data, and those revisions typically reduce the reported number of jobs. Revising the figure over time is a normal part of the process, given the size of the U.S. economy. The pattern is worth keeping in mind on release day, since the figure that anchors the initial headlines is often not the one that stands once revisions arrive.

Number of the day: 20% less

Europe’s total energy consumption is 20% lower than it was 20 years ago, according to Marieke Blom of ING. Her analysis was published by ING Think.

Front-page headlines

• The Financial Times: The United States and China extend their trade truce as President Donald Trump welcomes President Xi Jinping for a summit.
• CNBC: Global debt exceeds $365 trillion as economists warn of a “vicious cycle.”
• The Wall Street Journal: A judge orders Trump to lift a ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico.
• The New York Times: As Xi visits Washington, Trump plays down China’s actions against U.S. interests.
• The New York Post: A Cold War-style plot involving an alleged network of Russian agents sought to infiltrate the U.S. Secret Service using an American technology chief executive.

Dolly Parton’s estate faces litigation

Dolly Parton’s estate accused the country music icon’s nephew of threatening violence and seeking to damage his aunt’s legacy and business empire, according to court filings submitted Tuesday and reported by the Associated Press.

The estate asked a judge to keep Bryan Seaver away from its employees and business dealings. Seaver owns a company that provided Parton’s security detail and had been selected by the star to announce her death from cancer the previous month.

According to the court documents, messages from Seaver led Parton’s trusts and estates attorney to leave and prompted employees of Parton’s company, She’s Alive, to resign. The entity also had to hire private security for employees, including security at their homes, the documents said.

The requested restraining order would prohibit Seaver from communicating with She’s Alive employees, attorneys and business partners or coming within 1,000 feet of them. It would also prevent him from interfering with the company’s business relationships. Fortune previously reported on the dispute in its coverage of the estate litigation.