Surprise U.S. tariffs, a war involving Iran, new American technology bans, and Chinese export controls are among the geopolitical shocks CEOs must now monitor, and in many cases plan for, as the list continues to grow.

“We’re in a world where all the assumptions about international institutions, free trade, a rules-based order—that’s all going away,” said Dominic Barton, strategic counselor to Eurasia Group and chair of Australian mining giant Rio Tinto.

Barton spoke with Fortune days after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods, including autos, dairy, and alcohol. The president had also threatened tariffs in response to wildfire smoke drifting across the border. “Fifteen years ago, there would have probably been diplomats bringing this forward,” Barton said. “Now it’s just tweeted.”

(Just to show how changeable things are, on Aug. 19 Trump announced—on social media—that he will delay the new Canada tariffs by three days as the two countries near a deal.)

Barton, a veteran McKinsey leader turned Canadian diplomat and later Rio Tinto chairman, said his background gives him a practical view of how executives should think about geopolitical scenarios. “There’s a lot more risk, but there’s also a lot more upside,” he said. “You can whine about it—’I hope it’ll go back to the way it was.’ I just don’t think it will.”

Moving away from the after-dinner speaker

Barton said many companies still treat geopolitical risk as a side issue rather than a central business concern, even as trade, technology, and diplomatic disputes can affect supply chains, financing, and where firms choose to operate.

“You have to move away from the after-dinner speaker. You’d get a former politician or someone at a board to give a talk at dinner and say, ‘let me tell you about my experience,’” he said. “That’s kind of over.”

Barton spent decades at McKinsey, eventually leading its Asia business as the firm expanded across China and the broader region. He later entered government when then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointed him ambassador to China in 2019. That posting placed him at the center of the “Two Michaels” crisis, in which Beijing detained two Canadian citizens on espionage allegations widely viewed as retaliation for Canada’s arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou at Washington’s request.

China released the “Two Michaels”—Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor—in 2021, after the U.S. agreed to defer prosecution of Meng.

“CEOs are going to have to spend more time with governments, and in government relations, than they ever have before,” Barton said. He pointed to Temasek chief executive Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara, former Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Tesla’s Elon Musk as leaders who have built that capability by spending real time trying to understand how foreign governments think.

More broadly, Barton argued that geopolitics must be deeply embedded in how companies assess their operations. “What’s your balance sheet look like? How much debt do you want to have? Are you able to withstand periods when you may have problems with customers, or with supply chain security? Where is your data going to be managed? Where do you incorporate yourself? You can’t just do it anywhere anymore,” Barton said.

Rio Tinto’s China shift

In addition to his work with Eurasia Group, Barton also chairs Rio Tinto. Mining has long been politically fraught because governments often claim ownership of natural resources, while miners must balance profits with minimizing political blowback.

Barton declined to discuss Rio Tinto in significant detail, citing the company’s July 29 earnings release. Rio Tinto has since reported a 43% jump in underlying earnings over the first half of the year, citing higher copper and aluminum prices amid growing demand tied to data centers.

He did, however, discuss one way Rio Tinto’s operations are changing in response to a broader global shift: China’s rise as a technological powerhouse.

“China’s a competitor, but it’s also a humongous source of IP now,” Barton said. “For Rio Tinto, the amount of purchasing we’re doing from China has gone up significantly. It’s more expensive than some of the traditional Western suppliers. But it’s better. It lasts longer. It doesn’t break down.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com