The U.S. dollar traded higher against all seven major currencies as the North American trading week opened on Monday, with its largest gain against the Swiss franc, followed by the New Zealand dollar and the euro. Sterling held up best, slipping only marginally. U.S. stock futures were mixed, with modest gains in the Dow and S&P 500 contrasting with a decline in the Nasdaq 100, while crude oil turned higher after early weakness in Asia and gold and silver were lower.

The week begins with a partial holiday: the United States observes Columbus Day, Canada celebrates Thanksgiving, and Japan is also off, leaving lighter participation across several markets. U.S. stock markets are open, but the cash Treasury market is closed, so the Treasury yields cited here are Friday's closing levels.

The Morning Kickstart video takes a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, outlining the bias for each pair, the levels that define risk, and the targets that would give either buyers or sellers more control. On a holiday session, follow-through takes on added weight: a price can break a level, but whether it can stay beyond it helps confirm which side is gaining control.

The U.S. dollar is higher

• EURUSD: 1.1174, down 0.24%
• USDJPY: 158.61, up 0.19%
• GBPUSD: 1.3230, down 0.01%
• USDCHF: 0.8330, up 0.35%
• USDCAD: 1.4265, up 0.08%
• AUDUSD: 0.6969, down 0.19%
• NZDUSD: 0.5595, down 0.25%

EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are trading near their session lows, while USDJPY and USDCHF sit near their session highs, leaving the dollar with the stronger hand in the opening price action.

Major currency trading ranges

• EURUSD: 1.1173 to 1.1187 — 14 pips
• USDJPY: 158.08 to 158.63 — 55 pips
• GBPUSD: 1.3228 to 1.3261 — 33 pips

EURUSD has the narrowest range of the three, providing a compact opening reference, though the range itself does not indicate the direction of the next move. The analysis centers on whether a break of a level can hold beyond it.

U.S. stock futures are mixed

With the U.S. debt market closed but equities open, futures implied a mixed start:

• Dow Industrial Average: up 56 points
• S&P 500: up 2.21 points
• Nasdaq 100: down 96 points

The Dow and S&P 500 gains are modest, and the Nasdaq 100 lags, leaving no broad agreement across the major indices heading into the open.

Treasury yields reflect Friday's close

The U.S. cash bond market is shut on Monday, so the latest yields are Friday's close from October 9. Last week, the 10-year yield moved to its highest level since 2002 at 5.365%.

• 2-year: 4.7911%
• 5-year: 5.0211%
• 10-year: 5.2421%
• 30-year: 5.6001%

The 10-year Treasury yield is a key benchmark for mortgage rates and other borrowing costs and reflects expectations for growth, inflation and Federal Reserve policy. Higher yields can support the dollar and pressure stocks by making bonds more competitive and reducing the present value of future earnings; lower yields can ease those pressures, though the reason behind the move matters. Elevated yield levels remain part of the backdrop for currencies and stocks, but there is no fresh cash Treasury move to assess on Monday.

Crude oil rebounds; precious metals retreat

WTI crude oil futures, the U.S. benchmark contract, traded at $93.04, up $1.19 or 1.30%, reversing the softer tone reported during the Asian session. Gold and silver were lower, while copper and Bitcoin were modestly higher:

• Gold: $4,171.43, down $23.22 or 0.55%
• Silver: $60.66, down $0.12 or 0.20%
• Copper: $6.7655, up $0.0175 or 0.26%
• Bitcoin: $83,136, up $313 or 0.38%

Middle East and Russia–Ukraine headlines remain in focus

The weekend brought fresh attack reports from Saudi Arabia. The Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi airports and two Aramco facilities, although the claims involving the oil facilities remained unverified. The Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers also discussed de-escalation.

Separately, President Trump announced a Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire. Ukraine, however, reported further Russian attacks on power infrastructure, and Moscow had not publicly confirmed the agreement. For energy traders, an announced ceasefire and one that holds are two different things, and further headlines could shift expectations for supply and disruption. More on the geopolitical developments is available in Eamonn's overnight market wrap.

China's yuan strengthens

The People's Bank of China set its strongest yuan reference rate since February 2023, and the offshore yuan reached its strongest level against the dollar since 2022 — a notable exception to the dollar's broad gains against the majors. The fixing, which the central bank sets at the start of trading day, serves as the official reference rate for the currency and is closely watched for what it signals about policymakers' stance toward the yuan.

A quieter Monday before a busier week

The holiday session gives way to major bank earnings beginning Tuesday, the traditional start of the U.S. quarterly reporting season. Bank results are widely read for their updates on loan demand and credit conditions, an early check on the health of the financial sector. U.S. CPI follows on Wednesday, with PPI and retail sales on Thursday. Inflation data will help frame the Federal Reserve outlook, while retail sales and corporate earnings offer an additional check on consumer demand and business performance. With the 10-year yield already at its highest since 2002, this week's inflation readings are the next major input into the rate expectations that underpin those yields. The full schedule is available in the economic calendar of key releases and events.

For Monday, the opening ranges provide nearby reference points: EURUSD is testing the lower end of its range near 1.1173, USDJPY is approaching its session high at 158.63, and GBPUSD is near its session low at 1.3228. A break can open the door to an extension, while a failed break can show that buyers or sellers had their attempt and could not follow through. The video analysis focuses on the technical bias, risk-defining levels and targets for the three major pairs.

Source: Morning Kickstart: Dollar higher, oil rebounds as holiday trading begins — ForexLive.