Crude oil resumed its climb on Monday as doubts deepened over the Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” announced by US President Donald Trump, while talks between Washington and Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked.

The market had pulled back in the final part of last week after Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the November elections and said the two sides had been holding productive discussions.

Over the weekend, Iran said the US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was insufficient. Negotiations to bridge the differences are still under way, and Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Monday that Tehran is still reviewing US positions and will reply through intermediaries once the review is complete. The strait is one of the world's most important oil transit routes, carrying a large share of globally traded crude, which is why even incremental headlines from the negotiations tend to move prices.

Trump claimed on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire and would halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. According to Axios, Trump made a similar announcement last month, but neither party confirmed that a deal existed, and both Russia and Ukraine continued attacking energy infrastructure. Energy facilities have been recurring targets on both sides since the war began in 2022, so any pledge to spare them is closely watched by oil traders for signs it will hold.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on Monday morning that Russia had committed breaches of the energy ceasefire announced by Trump, while adding that Kyiv is waiting for details of the talks between the US and Russia.

Efforts to increase Russian diesel exports to the US could help ease concerns about fuel availability, but they will not resolve the shortage of crude flows through Hormuz. Diesel is a refined product rather than crude, so extra shipments address end-user fuel supplies without replacing the barrels that normally transit the strait.

Looking ahead, the focus will remain mainly on US-Iran negotiations, although a de-escalation in the Saudi-Houthi conflict and the Russia-Ukraine attacks could also limit gains in crude prices. A breakthrough in the talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a major selloff in oil prices on expectations of improved supply, while a negative outcome would change little at this stage, though it would limit the downside in crude.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, crude oil (CFD contract) has been rising steadily after bouncing off the lower bound of a channel, with buyers stepping in to target a rally into the 110.00 resistance. If the price pulls back to the lower bound of the channel again, buyers are expected to step in with defined risk below the channel and keep targeting the 110.00 resistance. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the break lower to position for a drop into the 68.00 support, with the 80.00 level as the first target.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, the break of the downward trendline opened the door for a rally into the 96.77 level. If the price reaches that level, sellers are expected to step in with defined risk above it, positioning for a drop back to the lower bound of the channel. Buyers, meanwhile, will look for a break higher to extend bullish bets toward the 110.00 resistance.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, the price pulled back into a minor upward trendline and bounced, with buyers stepping in to keep pushing toward the 96.77 resistance. Earlier on Monday, the price broke above the downward counter-trendline, and buyers added to bullish bets toward 96.77 on the breakout. Sellers will want to see the price fall back below the counter-trendline to target a pullback into the upward trendline, where buyers are likely to step in again to keep pushing toward new highs. The red lines on the chart define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

On Wednesday, the US CPI report is due. On Thursday, the economic calendar brings the US PPI, US Retail Sales and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. CPI and PPI are key inflation gauges that feed into expectations for Federal Reserve policy, while jobless claims offer a weekly read on the labor market. The focus, though, will remain on US-Iran negotiations.