The US dollar is trading mostly lower against major currencies to start the July 30 North American session, with notable declines against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY -0.30%), Australian dollar (-0.35%), and New Zealand dollar (-0.76%). The greenback sold off sharply after the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged yesterday and Chair Warsh appeared to endorse the market's decision to push rates higher between policy meetings, suggesting the Fed would act as a follower during what he described as "benign times"—meaning non-crisis periods. The dollar's decline alongside rising Treasury yields reflects markets interpreting Warsh's stance as a signal that the Fed is comfortable letting market forces tighten financial conditions rather than acting proactively with additional rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the British pound is little changed (+0.07%) after the Bank of England also kept rates unchanged, though the vote split came in at 6-3 in favor of a hike, versus the expected 7-2—a closer margin indicating greater internal pressure to tighten than markets had priced in.

Bank of England Holds Rates Citing Energy and Middle East Uncertainty

The Bank of England acknowledged that the economic impact of the recent energy price shock remains uncertain and emphasized that monetary policy cannot directly influence energy prices. Policymakers stated that the appropriate policy response will depend on how large and persistent the shock proves to be.

Officials warned that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, particularly if elevated energy prices lead to broader wage and price pressures. However, they noted there is currently little evidence of meaningful second-round inflation effects. Given the uncertainty—especially surrounding developments in the Middle East—the Bank judged it appropriate to leave rates unchanged at this meeting. The Bank reiterated that it stands ready to act if necessary to ensure inflation returns sustainably to its 2% target over the medium term.

On the dissent by Greene, Pill, and Mann, the minutes noted:

"These members were less reassured on the underlying disinflationary process, were concerned that second-round effects could be material, and thought it relevant that inflation had exceeded the 2% target for more than five years. For these members, uncertainty about how the conflict would evolve remained high, and so a risk management strategy was appropriate. They believed that a proactive increase in Bank Rate would reduce the probability of second-round effects setting in. Further, research found that setting policy as if there were stronger second-round effects and course correcting if needed, would prove to be less costly than vice versa."

US Treasury Yields Continue Higher

US yields are extending their upward run in today's session:

• 2-year: 4.247%, up 1.0 basis points
• 5-year: 4.385%, +3.3 basis points
• 10-year: 4.667%, +4.5 basis points
• 30-year: 5.196%, +5.5 basis points

The persistent rise in long-end yields, with the 30-year above 5%, underscores market concerns about the fiscal outlook and term premium even as the Fed signals a patient stance on policy rates.

Equity Futures Rebound After Yesterday's Selloff

US stock index futures are higher in pre-market trading after tumbling yesterday as markets digested Fed Chair Warsh's comments:

• Dow: +156 points
• S&P: +32 points
• Nasdaq: +304 points

After-Close Earnings Results

• Lam Research (LRCX): BEAT — Adjusted EPS $1.82 vs. $1.68 expected; Revenue $6.722B vs. $6.665B. Current price +8.75%.
• Fortinet (FTNT): BEAT — Adjusted EPS $0.90 vs. $0.75; Revenue $2.05B vs. $1.89B. Current price +10.87%.
• Carvana (CVNA): BEAT — EPS $0.42 vs. $0.38; Revenue $7.38B vs. $6.89B. Current price -9.98%.
• L3Harris Technologies (LHX): BEAT — EPS $3.13 vs. $2.80; Revenue $5.88B vs. $5.81B. Current price -4.21%.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD): BEAT — EPS $0.62 vs. $0.43; Revenue $1.31B vs. $1.28B. Current price +0.86%.
• Starbucks (SBUX): BEAT — Adjusted EPS $0.85 vs. $0.66; Revenue $9.30B vs. $9.17B. Current price +6.15%.
• Arm Holdings (ARM): BEAT — Adjusted EPS $0.45 vs. $0.40; Revenue $1.29B vs. $1.26B. Current price +0.67%.
• Microsoft (MSFT): BEAT — Adjusted EPS $4.74 vs. $4.24; Revenue $90.0B vs. $87.62B. Current price +9.96%.
• Meta Platforms (META): MIXED — EPS missed ($6.18 vs. $7.19); Revenue beat ($60.8B vs. $60.22B). Current price -9.43%.
• Qualcomm (QCOM): MIXED — Adjusted EPS missed ($2.21 vs. $2.23); Revenue beat ($9.95B vs. $9.68B). Q4 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.05–$2.25 also came in below the $2.36 consensus. Current price -5.58%.

After-close summary: Beat 8; Mixed 2 (Meta, Qualcomm); Missed (EPS & Revenue) 0. Microsoft's outsized revenue beat stands out as a bellwether for cloud and enterprise AI spending, while Meta's EPS miss despite a revenue beat reflects elevated capital expenditure pressures weighing on profitability.

Morning Earnings Results

• Yum! Brands (YUM): BEAT — EPS $1.62 vs. $1.58 expected.
• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): BEAT — EPS $2.04 vs. $1.59; Revenue $12.97B vs. $11.75B.
• Quanta Services (PWR): BEAT — EPS $4.24 vs. $3.31; Revenue $9.6B vs. $8.61B.
• KKR: BEAT — EPS $1.63 vs. $1.43; Revenue $5.73B vs. $5.09B.
• Hershey (HSY): BEAT — EPS $1.90 vs. $1.43; Revenue $2.79B vs. $2.63B. Guidance above expectations.
• Valero Energy (VLO): BEAT — EPS $12.54 vs. $10.13; Revenue $44.5B vs. $39.5B.
• Regeneron (REGN): BEAT — EPS $14.29 vs. $10.21; Revenue $4.29B vs. $3.82B.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): MIXED — EPS beat ($0.48 vs. $0.39); Revenue missed ($2.64B vs. $2.65B). FY EPS guidance below expectations.
• Trane Technologies (TT): BEAT — EPS $4.31 vs. $4.27; Revenue $6.35B vs. $6.20B.
• Xcel Energy (XEL): MIXED — EPS beat ($0.93 vs. $0.79); Revenue missed ($3.12B vs. $3.54B).
• CRH: BEAT — EPS $2.21 vs. $1.99; Revenue $10.8B vs. $10.7B. Guidance raised.
• Cigna (CI): BEAT — Operating EPS $7.78 vs. $7.60; Revenue $71.6B vs. $70.14B. Raised 2026 outlook.

Morning summary: Beat 10; Mixed 2 (Norwegian Cruise Line, Xcel Energy); Missed (EPS & Revenue) 0. Across both sessions, 18 of 22 reporting companies delivered clean beats on both lines, a rate that exceeds typical seasonal patterns and suggests corporate earnings resilience despite elevated macro uncertainty.