The U.S. dollar is modestly higher as North American traders arrive for the final trading day of the week, although the moves are limited. The dollar is higher against the EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD and NZD, while it is marginally lower against the AUD.

Trading ranges have been narrow:

EURUSD: 15 pips

USDJPY: 39 pips

GBPUSD: 17 pips

USDCHF: 20 pips

USDCAD: 14 pips

AUDUSD: 14 pips

NZDUSD: 17 pips

The tight ranges suggest a market waiting for the next catalyst. That leaves room for range extensions as North American traders enter and key events begin to unfold.

Before those events, U.S. Treasury yields are modestly higher, with the curve steepening as the largest increases are at the long end:

2-year yield: 4.234%, up 0.2 basis points

5-year yield: 4.407%, up 1.1 basis points

10-year yield: 4.688%, up 1.6 basis points

30-year yield: 5.209%, up 1.8 basis points

The main event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at 10:00 AM ET. It will be his first Jackson Hole keynote since becoming Fed chair in May. The broader symposium is focused on “Financial Innovation — Implications for Payments and Policy,” but traders will also be listening closely for clues about Warsh’s views on inflation, growth, the Treasury market and the path of monetary policy. With the Fed having kept rates unchanged at its two meetings under Warsh, the market will be especially sensitive to anything that changes expectations for the September meeting, especially with yields already moving higher ahead of the speech.

At 8:30 AM ET, Canada will release its second-quarter GDP report. Annualized growth is expected to come in at 3.4%, rebounding sharply from the revised 0.1% contraction in the first quarter. June GDP is expected to rise 0.2% after increasing 0.3% in May, making the report a timely gauge of whether the earlier first-quarter weakness was temporary.

At 10:00 AM ET, the final University of Michigan survey for August will be released:

Consumer sentiment: 51.0 expected versus 51.0 preliminary and 55.2 in July

Current conditions: 51.8 expected versus 51.8 preliminary and 54.8 in July

Expectations: 50.6 preliminary versus 55.4 in July

One-year inflation expectations: 4.3% preliminary versus 4.2% in July

Five-year inflation expectations: 3.3% preliminary versus 3.3% in July

The sentiment data will compete with Warsh’s speech for attention. Any revision to inflation expectations could influence Treasury yields and the dollar, especially if it reinforces or challenges the message from the Fed chair.

In U.S. stock market pre-market trading, the major indices are lower overall:

Dow: up 14.56 points

S&P: down 13 points

Nasdaq 100: down 105 points

In the Middle East, attention remains focused on diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has agreed to prepare a list of conditions for restoring normal maritime traffic, while Qatar and Oman are involved in efforts to find a workable arrangement. Some tanker traffic has resumed, but flows remain well below normal and U.S.-Iran negotiations are still deadlocked. Crude oil is little changed today but is on pace for a weekly decline, suggesting the market is cautiously pricing in improved shipping conditions while retaining a geopolitical risk premium.

For traders, the combination of narrow overnight ranges, modestly higher yields and significant event risk creates the potential for momentum later in the session. Technical levels will help define the bias, risk and targets once the market makes its next move. Be aware. Be prepared.