Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting a modest recovery on Wednesday after falling to its lowest price of the year, but persistent whale selling and weakening market indicators suggest the meme coin remains vulnerable to further losses.

The token trades around $0.068, slightly above Tuesday's yearly low of $0.066, as buyers try to stabilize the price following its latest decline. On-chain data, however, shows large holders continuing to reduce their exposure, adding to selling pressure at a time when broader market sentiment remains fragile. As a meme coin whose valuation rests largely on market sentiment rather than utility-driven demand, Dogecoin tends to draw close scrutiny of its biggest holders during downturns—an angle made possible by public blockchain ledgers, which allow analytics platforms such as Santiment and CryptoQuant to audit wallet balances in real time. With Dogecoin trading below its major moving averages, the $0.065 support level could determine whether the cryptocurrency stabilizes or extends its broader correction.

Whales offload 750 million DOGE since November 3

Large Dogecoin holders have kept reducing their positions, contributing to the meme coin's recent price weakness. According to Santiment's Supply Distribution data, three categories of whale wallets have collectively offloaded approximately 750 million DOGE since November 3.

The groups include wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million DOGE, addresses controlling between 1 million and 10 million tokens, and larger wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE. The decline in holdings across these tiers suggests substantial market participants have been reducing exposure rather than accumulating during the downturn. The latest selling activity coincides with a broader slide that pushed the cryptocurrency to a new yearly low. Because each band represents a distinct class of large holder, the tier-by-tier breakdown offers a way to tell whether distribution is broad-based or concentrated within one group—and the same dashboard can be monitored going forward to see whether the selling slows.

Broader on-chain indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. According to CryptoQuant's market summary, both DOGE spot and futures markets are showing large whale orders alongside elevated trading activity. The platform also identifies sell-side dominance across both markets, suggesting selling pressure continues to outweigh buying interest. The combination of large orders and heightened activity can indicate that major participants are actively repositioning during periods of volatility. The weakness across both spot and derivatives markets is particularly notable because it indicates the selling is not limited to a single category of traders.

Technical outlook: DOGE trades below all major EMAs

Dogecoin's technical structure remains bearish after the decline to a new yearly low. At the time of writing on Wednesday, DOGE trades around $0.068, recovering slightly after touching $0.066 in the previous session. Despite the modest rebound, the cryptocurrency continues to trade below its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating that sellers retain control of the broader trend.

The 50-day EMA stands near $0.079, the 100-day EMA is positioned around $0.081, and the longer-term 200-day EMA sits at approximately $0.088, creating a series of resistance barriers above the current market price. Trading below all three moving averages reflects the weakness in Dogecoin's technical structure and suggests recovery attempts could encounter renewed selling pressure. EMAs weight recent price action more heavily than simple moving averages, which is why traders commonly use them as trend-following reference points over these timeframes.

Momentum indicators support the bearish reading. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined into the low-30s, indicating weak buying momentum and suggesting DOGE is approaching oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum continues to dominate. By convention, RSI readings below 30 are labeled oversold, while the MACD is derived from the gap between two moving averages and uses their crossovers to flag shifts in momentum. Taken together, weak momentum and overhead resistance suggest the recent recovery may remain limited unless buying demand improves.

$0.065 support in focus

Dogecoin faces an important technical test as its price approaches the $0.065 support level. This horizontal threshold represents the next significant downside marker following Tuesday's decline to $0.066. If DOGE fails to defend $0.065, sellers could regain momentum and push the cryptocurrency toward fresh yearly lows. A decisive breakdown below this level would reinforce the broader bearish trend and suggest the recent recovery attempt has failed.

Despite the prevailing conditions, Dogecoin could attempt a short-term recovery if buyers begin accumulating near current levels. The first resistance stands around $0.068, where the token is currently trading. A sustained move above this level could encourage buyers to target the next horizontal resistance at $0.077. Beyond that barrier, the 50-day EMA near $0.079 represents another important hurdle; a breakout above it would improve Dogecoin's short-term technical structure and potentially open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $0.081. Further resistance stands at the 200-day EMA near $0.088, followed by the stronger horizontal barrier around $0.102.

This article was first published by CoinJournal.