Dogecoin traded near $0.0802 on October 17, down roughly 7.6% from its weekly opening and below the $0.081 level highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez. The weekly session opened at $0.08678 and reached a low of $0.07770 as buyers attempted to recover ground lost during October’s decline.

Trader Tardigrade compared the latest monthly chart setup with earlier contacts along a long-term support trendline. He identified contacts in 2017, 2020 and 2026, separated by three-year and six-year intervals, and said the earlier contacts preceded sharp advances on his chart. A support trendline is drawn beneath a series of prior lows on a chart and serves as a reference for where earlier buying emerged.

$DOGE /monthly #Dogecoin is back on the same long-term trendline that launched it twice before. 2017 touch → 3 years later, 2020 touch 2020 touch → 6 years later, 2026 touch Both times, price bounced off the line and surged. Price is sitting right below it again.… pic.twitter.com/lbyHBKfLvr — Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) October 17, 2026

The post is also available at https://x.com/TATrader_Alan/status/2111407169702895945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw.

Monthly trendline and whale accumulation

Trader Tardigrade said Dogecoin had returned to a monthly support trendline associated with earlier rallies. His post placed the token just below that line again, while Martinez focused on a daily TD Sequential buy signal near $0.081. As with any trendline observation, a touch marks a point of chart history rather than confirmation of how price will respond.

The TD Sequential counts sequences of price changes to identify possible trend exhaustion. Such a signal can indicate a potential turning point, but it does not confirm that demand has reversed an existing decline.

2/6 First, the TD Sequential has flashed a buy signal on $DOGE daily chart near $0.081. The indicator has marked potential turning points before for Dogecoin. This signal is especially interesting because of where it appeared. pic.twitter.com/od07wV3lwg — Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 16, 2026

The post is also available at https://x.com/alicharts/status/2111066152919285907?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw.

Martinez also cited Glassnode figures showing that roughly 36 billion DOGE last moved around the $0.081 area. The cost-basis distribution tracks previous on-chain transfers rather than orders waiting to be executed. Dogecoin remained below that cluster as balances held by large holders increased.

Citing Santiment data, Martinez said large-holder balances rose from roughly 55.6 billion DOGE to 56.2 billion DOGE between October 12 and October 16. He described the change as approximately 600 million DOGE added by large holders. At a price of $0.08025 per token, that amount would be worth about $48.2 million, although the calculation does not establish the prices paid for individual purchases. The accumulation window overlapped a stretch of falling prices, with DOGE declining from above $0.084 on October 14 before recovering toward $0.0825 on October 16.

Martinez’s longer-range recovery scenario depended on the $0.081 area holding and a rebound developing. He identified potential profit-taking zones at $0.16 and $0.17, where approximately 12 billion and 14 billion DOGE previously moved. From $0.08025, those levels would represent gains of about 99% and 112%, respectively. He did not provide a timeline for reaching either zone.

Daily indicators remain weak

Dogecoin traded near $0.08025 on the daily chart, between a session high of $0.08094 and a low of $0.07982. The daily Bollinger Bands placed the 20-day midpoint at $0.08847, the upper boundary at $0.09958 and the lower boundary at $0.07736. Bollinger Bands are volatility bands built around a moving average, and the space between them expands and contracts with price volatility. The token was therefore approximately 9.3% below the midpoint and 3.7% above the lower band.

The Awesome Oscillator remained negative near minus 0.00803, with its latest histogram bars below zero. The indicator measures momentum by comparing a short-term and a longer-term average of bar midpoint prices, so negative readings show recent momentum running below the longer-term pace. On the weekly Binance chart, DOGE also remained below all four displayed simple moving averages, which smooth closing prices over fixed windows and are widely used as trend references. The 20-week average stood at $0.08163, while the 50-week average was $0.10188. The 100-week and 200-week averages were $0.17248 and $0.13765, respectively. Weekly Chaikin Money Flow registered minus 0.06, a volume-weighted gauge whose negative readings point to net selling pressure over the measured period.

On October 15, DOGE appeared among four altcoins showing technical buy signals while trading near $0.07977. Martinez had previously outlined nearer recovery levels of $0.087 and $0.094. Reaching those levels from $0.08025 would require advances of roughly 8.4% and 17.1%. Both levels are above the daily Bollinger midpoint but below the 50-week moving average.

CoinGlass shows liquidation concentrations

The three-day CoinGlass heatmap showed prominent modeled liquidation concentrations near $0.0773 and $0.0844. Smaller clusters appeared around $0.078–$0.079 and $0.083–$0.0836. These bands estimate exposure to potential forced closures rather than completed liquidations. The modeled concentration near $0.0773 sits slightly below both the week’s low of $0.07770 and the lower Bollinger boundary of $0.07736, leaving those reference points within roughly half a percent of one another.

DOGE’s price path showed a decline from above $0.084 on October 14. The token recovered toward $0.0825 on October 16 before returning toward $0.080. Dogecoin had regained $0.10 after a 25% weekly rally by September 23, but the latest daily quote represented a subsequent decline of approximately 19.8% from that round-number level.

Separately, Bitwise planned to convert its Dogecoin fund holdings to cash on October 14. Its schedule set cash distributions to shareholders for October 22. That conversion applies to a single fund’s holdings on its own stated timetable and is distinct from the on-chain large-holder balances cited above.

Source: Blockonomi