Dogecoin extended its losses on Wednesday, trading near $0.090 as increasingly bearish derivatives positioning and fading technical momentum weighed on the meme coin. DOGE has now declined more than 5% so far this week. Although the price remains above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, its failure to recover the 200-day EMA leaves the near-term outlook vulnerable, and both market data and price prediction models point to a growing preference for short positions.

Long-to-short ratio drops to a monthly low

CoinGlass, which aggregates derivatives positioning data across major cryptocurrency exchanges, reported that its Dogecoin long-to-short ratio stood at 0.85 on Wednesday, its lowest level in more than a month, with the platform's headline metrics showing the gauge at 0.68. A reading below one indicates that short positioning outweighs long positioning within the tracked dataset, and the decline suggests traders have become more bearish as DOGE's weekly losses deepen. Positioning gauges like this are widely tracked because they show how leveraged traders are leaning in aggregate.

However, the ratio measures positioning rather than guaranteeing the direction of the next price move. A crowded bearish trade can also become vulnerable to a reversal if buying demand returns. For now, the reading reinforces the cautious tone surrounding Dogecoin.

CryptoQuant, an analytics provider covering on-chain and derivatives activity, identified overheating conditions across Dogecoin's spot and futures markets in its summary data. The platform also highlighted large orders in the futures market, with sell-side activity dominating. Taken together, those signals suggest elevated trading activity is occurring alongside pressure from sellers.

Overheating alone does not establish that prices must decline. In this case, however, the sell-side imbalance and the weaker long-to-short ratio support a bearish interpretation of the market snapshot.

DOGE struggles below its 200-day moving average

Dogecoin remained below its 200-day EMA near $0.093, making that level an immediate obstacle to recovery. The 200-day EMA, which weights recent prices more heavily to track the longer-term trend, is widely used as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. The price continued to hold above the 50-day EMA at $0.088 and the 100-day EMA at $0.086, indicating that some underlying support remains despite the recent pullback. That combination of overhead resistance and nearby support has effectively framed the token's recent price action.

Momentum indicators were less supportive. The Relative Strength Index hovered near 48, slightly below its neutral midpoint of 50, while the MACD line was marginally negative. For context, RSI readings above 70 are conventionally treated as overbought and below 30 as oversold. Together, those readings suggest buyers have lost momentum without the market yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

Immediate support sits around $0.088, where the 50-day EMA aligns with a horizontal price level. If that support fails, the next reference points are the 100-day EMA at $0.086 and the former trendline breakout area near $0.085. A daily close below this zone would weaken the technical structure and bring the deeper horizontal support at $0.070 into focus.

For a recovery, DOGE first needs to reclaim the 200-day EMA at $0.093. A sustained move above it would ease immediate bearish pressure and shift attention toward resistance around $0.102. Until then, Dogecoin faces a test of nearby support as bearish positioning and subdued momentum limit its recovery prospects.

This article originally appeared on CoinJournal.