Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing early signs of a bullish recovery, trading around $0.0770 on Thursday after extending its gains for a second consecutive session. The meme coin has held its position above the $0.0770 level, building on a rebound of more than 2% during the previous session. The recovery, however, has yet to attract meaningful participation from institutional investors and leveraged traders.

Data from CoinGlass shows that Dogecoin futures Open Interest has declined since Monday, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the token have recorded no fresh inflows since October 14, according to SoSoValue. The token's recent price strength therefore contrasts with persistent softness in derivatives positioning and ETF demand. Despite the weak demand indicators, DOGE's four-hour technical structure is improving. The cryptocurrency has reclaimed a key short-term moving average and is approaching a descending resistance trendline near $0.0786. A successful breakout could strengthen bullish momentum and put the $0.0806 resistance level within reach.

Futures participation cools even as price climbs

Dogecoin's recent price gains have not been accompanied by an increase in futures market participation. According to CoinGlass, DOGE futures Open Interest fell to $1.06 billion on Thursday from $1.18 billion on Monday. Open Interest measures the total value of outstanding derivative contracts and is widely watched as a gauge of leverage and trader conviction.

The divergence suggests the rebound has not yet generated sufficient confidence to attract fresh leveraged positioning. It may also indicate that some traders are closing positions rather than committing additional capital during the recovery. Falling Open Interest does not automatically signal bearish sentiment, however: if short sellers are closing positions, declining Open Interest can coincide with upward price movement. How that divergence resolves offers a gauge of conviction behind the move: a rebuild in Open Interest alongside higher prices would point to returning leveraged participation, while a continued decline would indicate the recovery is advancing without fresh leveraged backing.

Institutional demand for Dogecoin also remains subdued. According to SoSoValue data, Dogecoin-focused ETFs have recorded zero new inflows since October 14. The absence of fresh inflows has now extended into a third consecutive week, highlighting limited buying interest through these investment products. Spot ETFs like these hold the underlying token directly and trade on traditional exchanges, which is why their daily flows are widely used as a proxy for institutional appetite. For Dogecoin, the lack of ETF inflows stands in contrast to its improving short-term price performance.

Recovery unfolds amid post-election market improvement

Dogecoin's rebound comes as the broader cryptocurrency market attempts to recover following a recent period of heightened volatility. Market sentiment has shown signs of improvement after the US midterm elections, in which Democrats secured control of both congressional chambers. The political developments have contributed to changing expectations about the direction of US economic and digital asset policy, although the direct implications for cryptocurrency regulation remain uncertain. For speculative assets such as Dogecoin, broader market confidence can be particularly important.

DOGE reclaims key moving average on the four-hour chart

Dogecoin's technical outlook has improved after the cryptocurrency moved back above its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart. DOGE trades near $0.0772, holding above the 50-period EMA at approximately $0.0762. The EMA gives greater weight to recent prices and is commonly used to assess short-term market direction.

Dogecoin has not yet cleared its most important near-term resistance, however. A descending trendline connecting the October 8 and October 29 highs currently sits near $0.0786 and has acted as an overhead barrier during the recent decline. A confirmed breakout above it would indicate that buyers are challenging the sequence of lower highs that has constrained DOGE's recovery.

Momentum indicators on the four-hour chart support the possibility of further gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator measured on a scale of 0 to 100, stands near 58, indicating that buying pressure has strengthened without the market reaching an extreme overbought state. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally positive. Together, the RSI and MACD readings suggest the recovery has technical support, although these signals remain relatively modest and do not guarantee a sustained breakout.

Key levels to watch

Dogecoin's immediate upside target is the descending resistance trendline near $0.0786. A sustained four-hour close above this barrier could strengthen bullish momentum and open the way toward $0.0806. The $0.0806 level is particularly important because it aligns with the 200-period EMA — a longer lookback average commonly used to gauge broader trend direction — and horizontal resistance on the four-hour chart.

Failure to overcome the trendline could trigger renewed selling pressure and encourage traders to take profits following the recent rebound. On the downside, immediate support stands at the 50-period EMA near $0.0762. A sustained break below this level would weaken the short-term bullish outlook and suggest that buyers are losing momentum.

The next significant support is located around $0.0723, a horizontal price level that could attract renewed demand. If selling pressure intensifies and DOGE falls below $0.0723, the next downside target would be approximately $0.0677. Beyond the chart, whether futures Open Interest stabilizes and ETF inflows resume are the demand-side signals that would show whether the recovery is drawing broader participation.

This article originally appeared on CoinJournal.