Dogecoin ($DOGE) fell 2.6% in a single day and was down 6.5% over the week, mirroring a broad pullback across the memecoin sector, whose combined market capitalization shrank by 8.4% over the same period. The sector has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) by a significant margin this week. Dogecoin, launched in 2013 as the original memecoin, remains the largest asset in the category by market capitalization, which gives its price action outsized visibility whenever the sector comes under pressure.

With DOGE down 15% so far in October — a month crypto traders have long dubbed "Uptober" in reference to the market's historically strong October performance — and ETF flows offering little encouragement, there did not appear to be much reason to expect a Dogecoin revival at press time.

Failed breakout raises caution

On the 1-day timeframe, Dogecoin's swing structure remained bullish, having already retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level back in September. The memecoin pushed higher once again but was unable to close a daily session above the $0.1008 high set in August.

The subsequent retracement back to $0.08 — where the price stood at the time of writing — may serve as a warning sign. A decline in the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line, a volume-based gauge of buying and selling pressure, and negative Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) readings, a complementary measure of capital moving in and out of the market, confirmed selling pressure over the past two weeks. Combined with the failure to establish a bullish structure continuation, these signals could be a concern for bulls.

As a result, the odds of a further price decline, or of a range forming between $0.08 and $0.10, appeared greater than those of a bullish trend revival.

A 36 billion DOGE demand zone at $0.081

According to popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez, UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data — an on-chain metric that groups coins by the price at which they were last moved, mapping where holders' cost bases are concentrated — showed 36 billion Dogecoin tokens traded around the $0.081 level, making the local lows all the more important as a demand zone. On-chain analysts treat such cost-basis clusters as potential demand zones because they mark price levels where large groups of holders acquired their tokens. There is no guarantee, however, that buyers will defend this level.

Martinez also cited 600 million $DOGE bought by whales since October 12 — whale accumulation being a widely tracked on-chain signal for how larger market participants are positioned — while the cost basis distribution heatmap likewise highlighted $0.081 as the level to hold.

If the level is defended, a bullish rebound could target $0.108–$0.121 next. Further north, the $0.16–$0.17 zone stands out as an important long-term supply area that could be difficult to clear due to profit-taking.

Summary

Dogecoin's price structure was bullish on the daily chart, but the failure to confirm a bullish continuation was a warning sign. The $0.081 support level is pivotal, both in on-chain terms and as a local support zone, and the behavior of the 36 billion-token cluster there is set to remain a focal point for on-chain observers.

Source: Can 36 billion DOGE UTXO cluster avert price breakdown below $0.081? — Ambcrypto