Shipping companies must stop betting on a single decarbonisation pathway and instead build strategies capable of surviving radically different regulatory, fuel and technology outcomes, DNV, the Norway-headquartered classification society, has argued in its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, issued on 27 August 2026.

The 10th edition of the classification society's flagship annual forecast puts uncertainty at the centre of shipping's energy transition, with the fate of the IMO's global carbon regulations still unresolved and low-GHG fuel markets struggling to develop sufficiently strong commercial foundations. The backdrop is the IMO's revised greenhouse gas strategy, adopted in 2023, which commits international shipping to net-zero emissions by or around 2050 with interim checkpoints pointing to 20–30 percent reductions by 2030 and 70–80 percent by 2040 against 2008 levels; the mid-term measures intended to drive those cuts, a global fuel standard combined with greenhouse gas pricing, have been through years of member-state negotiation without a settled final outcome.

DNV Maritime CEO Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria said the ability to cope with several possible futures is becoming a critical competitive skill for owners.

"The strongest message of this year's report is clearly that dealing with uncertainty and preparing for multiple possible futures remains one of the most important strategic capabilities," she said. "Different regulatory outcomes, market conditions, and technology developments may lead to different transition pathways."

Rather than choosing one future and optimising an entire fleet around it, DNV argued that owners should stress-test investment strategies against different scenarios, balancing cost and compliance against flexibility and the risk of stranded assets. The classification society pointed to the huge regulatory divergence of today, which means shipowners can face significantly different economics depending on where and how their vessels trade. That divergence is already tangible: the EU has brought shipping into its Emissions Trading System from 2024 and added FuelEU Maritime from 2025, attaching direct carbon costs to European trades that no equivalent global mechanism yet covers.

"Rather than relying on a single view of the future, the industry should focus on building strategies capable of adapting as conditions evolve," Saenz de Santa Maria said.

The forecast identified energy efficiency as the most immediate and commercially attractive option available while the bigger fuel question remains unresolved. Reducing energy consumption delivers benefits regardless of which future fuel ultimately prevails, lowering bunker expenditure and exposure to carbon costs without forcing owners to predict the eventual regulatory outcome. That increasingly makes efficiency a strategic hedge rather than simply an environmental measure, and it is also the area where regulation already bites: the IMO's carbon-intensity rules have required in-service ships to be measured and rated for energy performance since 2023.

The far more difficult issue is how a genuine market for low-GHG marine fuels will emerge. Ammonia, methanol, low-GHG methane, biofuels and synthetic fuels are all competing for a role, but widespread adoption depends on far more than whether engines can burn them.

DNV highlighted the familiar chicken-and-egg problem between producers unwilling to commit billions without reliable demand, and shipowners reluctant to make long-term fuel commitments without confidence over availability, price and regulation. Shipping will also have to compete with aviation, road transport and heavy industry for many of the same low-emission molecules and renewable-energy inputs, making availability as much an economic question as a production one.

The implications stretch directly into ship ordering. Owners ordering vessels today are committing capital to ships likely still to be trading well into the 2040s, which means fuel flexibility, conversion options and the ability to operate efficiently under several regulatory regimes assume increasing value. Ordering patterns already reflect that calculus, with a growing share of newbuild contracts placed for dual-fuel tonnage, mostly LNG- and methanol-capable, even as the overwhelming majority of the operating fleet still runs on conventional oil-derived fuels.

DNV's message is not that owners should postpone decisions until the fog clears. Waiting for certainty could itself become a risky strategy.

"By stress-testing strategies across scenarios, shipowners can identify pathways that balance cost, risk, and flexibility," Saenz de Santa Maria said, avoiding decisions that might perform well under one outcome but leave fleets exposed under another.