Democrats are already expected to take the House in the fall, but their path to winning the Senate would be considerably more difficult without a series of political developments that could help carry them across the finish line, according to The New York Times. The stakes are structural: the 100-member chamber confirms the president’s Cabinet nominees and federal judges, and its seats are often divided narrowly enough that a shift of one or two determines which party sets the agenda.

The party would need to flip at least two Senate seats in states that President Donald Trump won by 11 percentage points or more. The Times reported that no party has accomplished that since 2008. This election cycle, however, has been shaped by a series of political missteps, policy setbacks and rising diesel prices that have affected Trump’s standing.

“It’s hard to be surprised by bad poll results for Mr. Trump. Still, these results from such Republican-leaning states — which gave Mr. Trump an average of 56 percent of the vote in 2024 — are striking,” the Times reported. “Across the five states [deciding the Senate], the president’s approval rating was just 40 percent, while 57 percent had an unfavorable view. That’s not much better than Mr. Trump’s ratings in recent national polls. The results also represent a significant decline in his support since our last polls in four of these states in June. Since then, his ratings have fallen by five points.”

Trump’s numbers have declined not only in the states that could determine control of the Senate but nationwide since the previous Times/Siena poll. The Times said the change was “not hard to explain with gas prices and mortgage rates rising.”

The Times also said the shift was not primarily a matter of changing demographics. Trump’s support has weakened in the farm belt, where his conflict with Iran has driven up diesel prices that affect farmers and blue-collar workers across the Midwest and other rural areas. Diesel is the workhorse fuel of that economy, powering farm equipment and the freight trucks that move crops to market, which is why sustained price increases register quickly in agricultural regions.

Candidate quality is another factor in the Republican contests. Republican candidates are facing more seasoned Democratic opponents, and polling in traditionally Republican states has shown voters viewing the Democratic candidates more favorably.

“In all five states, voters say that the phrase ‘has good character’ describes the Democratic candidate better than the Republican. In four of the five states (in the fifth, Ohio, it’s essentially even), a greater share of voters say the Republican is ‘too far to the right’ than say the Democrat is ‘too far to the left,’” the Times reported.

The Times described Texas as a “perfect storm,” with Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by six percentage points. The report attributed the contrast in part to Talarico’s clean-cut image and unblemished résumé, compared with Paxton’s history of grievances, marital infidelity, corruption allegations and attempted impeachments.

Democrats are also holding an unexpected seven-point lead in Alaska, a reliably Republican state that uses a top-four primary in which candidates from all parties compete on the same ballot. The four leading candidates advance to the general election. In this year’s primary, Democrat Mary Peltola finished eight points ahead of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

Sullivan is also facing another candidate named “Dan Sullivan” in the Alaska Senate race. “And the other Dan Sullivan will indeed appear on the ballot in November,” the Times reported.

The Times also cited Trump’s decision to associate the Republican Party with artificial intelligence in Ohio and a Kansas Democrat who recorded the highest net favorability of any candidate tested in a Times/Siena poll. Together, those developments have added to the challenges Republicans face in the midterm elections. With the general election set for November, follow-up polling and the fall campaigns themselves will show whether these numbers hold.