Delivery reliability has surpassed speed as the second-most important factor for consumers when choosing a shipping option, trailing only price, according to Jake Stein, Vice President of Retail Growth at Burq, an AI-enabled last-mile delivery platform. Stein, who previously served as a leader at Uber Direct, cited McKinsey research showing that speed — once ranked second — has fallen to roughly fifth place in consumer delivery priorities, a shift he said carries direct consequences for retailers that have not yet diversified their carrier networks.

The finding underscores a broader recalibration across the last-mile sector, where failed or delayed deliveries have long been a costly problem — industry studies, including widely cited research from Capgemini, have estimated that failed deliveries cost retailers billions annually in redeliveries, customer service overhead, and lost sales. For shippers, brokers, and carriers, the shift reframes where last-mile investment delivers the highest return. Rather than continually bidding on faster delivery windows, Stein argued, merchants stand to gain more by guaranteeing that a stated delivery promise — even a two-day window — is consistently met.

"It used to be, you know, price then speed," Stein said in an interview on FreightWaves Today. "Now speed is down about number 5, and reliability or accuracy of the delivery is number 2 after price."

He added: "If you're paying a lot for a specific speed delivery and it doesn't go well, you're a lot more disappointed than if it's perhaps free and doesn't go well."

Stein's observations are rooted in his tenure at Uber Direct, where he gained insight into the broader last-mile ecosystem spanning same-day, on-demand, and next-day delivery. He described Uber Direct as having exceptional global supply reach, with a particularly heavy presence in the U.S. and Canada, serving retail, grocery, restaurant, and pharmacy clients. However, he identified an opportunity to help retailers move beyond reliance on a single vendor — a strategy that has gained traction as major carriers like FedEx and UPS have adjusted their pricing and service models, and as gig-economy platforms including DoorDash and Instacart have expanded their enterprise delivery offerings.

"Even though Uber has great reliability and great reach, there's always opportunity for creating competition and improving on your reliability and getting potentially better cost, greater coverage," Stein said. "And really, the only way to do that is generally either by building infrastructure to allow that yourself by connecting to multiple providers, or working through a platform that already has access to tons and tons of tons of supply across the globe."

That realization led him to Burq, where he now advocates for a multi-provider, or hybrid, delivery model.

The Case for a Hybrid Delivery Model

Stein outlined three primary pressure points that make a single-provider approach vulnerable: supply shortfalls from one vendor, system outages, and performance degradation. By connecting via API to dozens of providers, merchants can force their primary carrier to compete on cost and flexibility while maintaining a fallback network.

Under a hybrid model, a preferred provider may still handle the majority of deliveries, but merchants gain access to a broader network at the moment a shipment is created. If the primary provider lacks supply, experiences a system outage, or suffers a drop in performance, the order can be routed through alternative carriers.

"It challenges that initial provider to perform better, to potentially have better costs and be more flexible," Stein explained.

He emphasized that last-mile delivery encompasses any shipment reaching the end customer — whether dispatched from a distribution center, a hub, a third-party logistics provider, or a retail store. That includes gig-economy providers, in-house fleets, national carriers, couriers, and parcel companies.

Delivery Choice as a Conversion Lever

Delivery choice functions as a powerful conversion driver, comparable to product selection, Stein argued. Retailers that display only standard or next-day shipping options risk cart abandonment from shoppers who want same-day service, a specific two-hour delivery window for high-value items requiring proof of delivery or a PIN code, or simply wish to match their purchase urgency to a service level they trust.

"If the retailer doesn't offer all of those particular shipping options in that particular buying experience, they're going to go somewhere else," Stein said.

He noted that the buying experience varies even for the same customer depending on circumstances. A consumer might need an item within two hours and be willing to pay $15 for expedited delivery, or they may be perfectly content receiving it in two days — as long as it actually arrives within the promised window.

This dynamic puts smaller boutique retailers at a disadvantage against major players like Amazon, whose existing delivery infrastructure and broad product selection encourage customers to consolidate purchases. Amazon's in-house logistics network now delivers the majority of its own parcels, giving it a level of control over both speed and reliability that few competitors can match. One FreightWaves host cited a conversation with the president of Sporty's, a leading general aviation retailer, noting that even loyal customers occasionally bypass the specialty retailer for Amazon out of convenience.

Navigating Cost and Margin Pressures

Consumer expectations have been shaped significantly by services like Walmart+ and what Stein described as the "Amazonization" of consumer demand. However, he argued that expectations are no longer solely focused on improved speed.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for speed surged, but supply constraints meant that fast delivery was difficult to execute reliably. That gap between promise and performance left consumers reconsidering their priorities, Stein said. Customers who paid a premium for expedited delivery and did not receive it grew more frustrated than those using free shipping with similar outcomes.

"I think as that has left somewhat of a taste in consumers' mouths — like, yeah, I might be paying for speed, but I might not always get it — that reliability starts to creep in," Stein explained. "Customers are willing to say, I know when I'm going to get it, instead of having to pay for speed that I may not necessarily get."

Stein noted that service-level agreements (SLAs) are central to delivery strategy. Merchants must determine which SLAs to offer — whether five-day, next-day, same-day, on-demand, or within a narrow two-hour window — and then orchestrate delivery across a mix of gig providers, in-house fleets, and national carriers. Doing so effectively requires AI-driven systems capable of analyzing available nodes and selecting the optimal mode for each shipment.

Starting with Behavioral Data

For retailers looking to rethink their delivery strategy, Stein recommended starting with behavioral data. Merchants should track whether customers are exploring shipping-options pages, selecting faster tiers, or abandoning carts entirely.

A platform layer that surfaces those signals can identify, for example, that a specific customer abandoned checkout because a desired service level was not offered. That data gives merchants a concrete, evidence-based case for adding new delivery options to their e-commerce site or mobile app.

"You need to start with getting an understanding of the data," Stein said. "And really, that's as simple as having a platform that can read it and tell you back: okay, this customer abandoned the cart because you didn't have X. If you had X, perhaps that customer would have converted."

Drone and Autonomous Delivery: A Measured Outlook

On the topic of autonomous and drone delivery, Stein struck a measured tone. He said drones will eventually create meaningful cost advantages, citing prescription drop-offs as one promising near-term use case. It is significantly cheaper to deliver medication to a backyard by drone than to dispatch a human courier, he noted. However, regulatory hurdles surrounding airspace control will slow broader adoption.

Autonomous ground vehicles face a different and potentially steeper challenge. Most current deployments still require customers to walk to the vehicle and retrieve their packages rather than receiving a doorstep delivery — a limitation Stein said falls short of the convenience consumers expect and are willing to pay for.

"That's not the convenience that a lot of people are paying for," Stein said. "They just want it right on their doorstep. So there needs to be a bridge, and there's companies looking at that. I think that'll take longer, but drones — it's going to happen. It's just going to take a little bit of time."

Several companies, including Zipline, are actively testing drone delivery programs. Amazon, too, has continued refining its Prime Air drone service, though regulatory approval and scaling have progressed slower than initially projected.

Source: FreightWaves