Bitcoin's slide through October — the move that has rattled crypto holders in recent weeks — should be read not as the opening of a bear market but as a retracement of the kind that preceded the last bull run, according to a cycle update published Friday, October 16, by crypto research outlet The DeFi Report.

The distinction carries weight: the same drawdown can be read either as a routine contraction within a longer advance or as the first signal of a reversal, and the two readings steer market commentary in very different directions. The firm's framework comes down decisively on the first side of that divide.

In the update, analyst Mike assigns a 90% probability to the early bull cycle scenario, with Bitcoin's $75,000 line identified as the key level in the firm's framework. For readers tracking the call, that threshold is the reference point against the analysis anchors its reading of where Bitcoin sits in the cycle.

Deep pullbacks have historically occurred within Bitcoin's bull cycles rather than only at their conclusion. During the 2017 rally, Bitcoin recorded multiple drawdowns in excess of 30% before going on to new highs, and the asset fell sharply in March 2020 before beginning an advance that carried it to successive record levels through 2021. That history of sharp corrections inside broader uptrends is a frequent reference point when market participants weigh the significance of interim declines, and it is the pattern that frames the update's retracement reading of October's move.

The DeFi Report's October 16 cycle update lays out the framework behind the firm's 90% assessment and the role assigned to the $75,000 threshold in its analysis. Price behavior relative to that line is the checkpoint through which the framework's early-cycle reading can be followed as the cycle progresses.

This report was first published on COINOTAG on October 17, 2026: The DeFi Report Analyst Puts 90% Odds on Early Bull Cycle With $75,000 Line.