Following the death of Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), his sister Darlene Graham was appointed to fill his seat on a temporary basis. When she announced her intention to seek a full term, she quickly secured the endorsement of President Donald Trump. However, according to Washington Post reporting, "rather than embracing the president's endorsed candidate in a whirlwind election less than two weeks away, influential conservative activists in South Carolina say they're not swayed."

South Carolina conservatives have already defied the president once this year, rejecting his preferred candidate in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary in June. A similar scenario may now be unfolding, as "his supporters question whether the president is acting with their top priorities in mind." The Post reports that "many conservative activists say they aren't sold on Graham because of her lack of a political record, besides her public support for her brother."

"People are going to be independently minded in this, and I don't think that Trump is the end all, be all that he used to be," said CJ Westfall, chairman of the Dorchester County Republican Party.

Darlene Graham faces a crowded field. A dozen candidates have filed for the August 11 primary, including a former governor and two conservative members of the House of Representatives. In South Carolina, a candidate must clear 50 percent to win outright; otherwise the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff two weeks later. The contest is widely expected to go to a runoff — a scenario that, as Westfall noted, "typically bring[s] out the hard core of the hard core." In a solidly Republican state where the GOP nominee is heavily favored in November, the primary — and any resulting runoff — will effectively determine the next senator.

According to the Post, "more than a dozen South Carolina Republican operatives and activists described three issues working against Graham." First, she has never held elected office and remains little-known statewide, even given her brother's national profile. Second, her association with Senator Lindsey Graham carries potential downsides in a primary: the late senator had drawn criticism from Trump's MAGA-aligned base for his hawkish foreign policy positions and willingness to collaborate with Democrats, and he had spent $20 million to repel a primary challenge from the right earlier this year. Third, "some are simply irked that Trump wants to hand off a coveted six-year term to someone based on family ties, rather than a proven conservative record."

"Darline is really in for a dogfight," said one Republican official involved in Senate races.

Her principal rivals, Representatives Ralph Norman and Russell Fry, both bring established conservative credentials and broad endorsement networks. Per the Post, "Norman has secured the endorsements of conservative Republican Sens. Rick Scott (Florida) and Mike Lee (Utah), along with upstate sheriffs, while Fry has the backing of 40 Republican state legislators." Although Darlene Graham has received endorsements from several Republican Senate colleagues, she has not yet secured public backing from two pivotal figures: Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee — the Senate GOP's campaign arm — and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD). The absence of Scott, South Carolina's senior senator and a prominent national Republican, is particularly notable given his institutional role in the party's Senate strategy.

Without those endorsements, Graham is relying heavily on the weight of Trump's support. Yet in recent months, several Trump-endorsed candidates have gone on to lose high-profile races — a pattern that has not gone unnoticed among South Carolina Republicans.

"Trump's endorsements haven't always been correct in the voters' eyes," said Mark Lynch, who mounted the primary challenge against Lindsey Graham earlier this year and is again running for the seat. "We're not going to have a coronation in this state and elect Darline as the queen, underneath the king, Lindsey."