Bitcoin bear market conditions ended this summer, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, who says the market has entered the early stage of a new cycle. Sharing the assessment on Bitcoin Magazine's YouTube program BMTV, Ki said he expects Bitcoin to rise three to five times from its lows. The projection is his own scenario, grounded in the on-chain evidence he lays rather than in any single catalyst.

The analyst pointed to fresh capital entering the market, easing selling by early whales, and large futures traders rebuilding long positions near the bottom as the core evidence behind the call. He also laid out the same view in a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant's insights platform, published alongside the BMTV discussion. Pinpointing where Bitcoin sits in its cycle is a central pursuit of on-chain analysis, which reads holder behavior directly from the blockchain rather than from price alone.

On-Chain Signals Behind the Outlook

During the program, Ki pointed to three on-chain signals behind his outlook. He said the PnL Index 365-day moving average remains soft for now. Even so, he noted that broader profitability and valuation metrics are approaching important inflection points.

Next, Ki discussed Accumulation Addresses, which CryptoQuant uses to track coins moving into holding rather than spending hands. He said inflows to these addresses have risen sharply, and the 30-day average has also turned higher. Together, those readings point to fresh capital entering the market, which Ki described as a clear sign that new buyers are arriving. Because those addresses are designated for holding rather than trading, the metric helps separate longer-term accumulation from short-term flows.

Ki then addressed the MVRV ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin's market value with the value of coins priced where they last moved. He explained that the ratio looks far less extreme than in earlier cycles. Previous cycle peaks reached 4 to 5 or higher, while this cycle has stayed much lower. As a result, Ki believes both euphoria and capitulation are becoming milder.

He also spoke about large holders. According to Ki, selling by OG whales is easing, while large futures players have rebuilt long exposure near the bottom. Taken together, he cited these developments as support for the conclusion that the bear market has ended.

Market Structure Shifts Toward Institutions

On the subject of Bitcoin ETFs, Ki said flows are improving. However, he stated that the identity of the end buyers remains unclear. For that reason, he argued that custodial flows matter more at this stage. Without clear buyer data, he sees custodial flows as a key reference point. With end buyers unnamed, custodian balances are one of the few places where institutional demand leaves a directly observable footprint.

Beyond the data, Ki described a broader change in market structure. Bitcoin, he said, is moving away from a market led by retail traders and OG whales toward one increasingly shaped by ETFs, institutions, and custodians. He added that macroeconomic conditions and regulation also play a growing role.

Earlier cycles were driven mainly by retail participants and early holders. Today, Ki says a wider group of participants shapes the market. Consequently, he places more weight on custodial flows than before, with ETF inflows and custodian balances receiving closer attention.

Ki framed the discussion around three questions: Who is buying? Who has stopped selling? Is fresh capital still coming in? Those, he said, are the main points to watch after the Bitcoin bear market. In practice, that makes ETF inflows, custodian balances, and accumulation-address trends the concrete checklist for gauging whether his read on the cycle holds.