Crypto prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket posted a combined $2.7 billion in weekly notional volume last week, a record for the category, according to a Bloomberg report citing data compiled by a Dune Analytics user. Short-term Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency price contracts drove much of the activity, and the milestone underscores growing participation in event-based contracts tied to digital-asset prices.

Crypto ranked second only to sports on both platforms, Bloomberg reported, placing the category ahead of all other event types while sports remained the largest source of activity. The report did not break down the volume by asset, venue, or individual contract, so the total should be read as a category-level signal rather than a measure of any single platform's crypto business.

Bitcoin Price Bets Help Push Weekly Crypto Volume on Kalshi and Polymarket to Record $2.7B — Bloomberg, citing data compiled by a Dune Analytics user, reported that weekly notional volume in crypto-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $2.7 billion last week,… pic.twitter.com/pAS4rbuQAR — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 24, 2026

What the $2.7 Billion Figure Measures

Notional volume counts the face value of contracts traded; it is not the amount users deposited, nor the platforms' revenue. Contracts can change hands before resolution, adding turnover creating a new event. As a result, prediction markets can report high activity even when deposits, the number of unique participants, or the concentration of trading among a small group of users remain unknown.

The figure measures gross trading activity rather than the amount of capital actually at risk, and it cannot indicate whether traders expect Bitcoin prices to rise or fall. The headline total alone cannot show whether activity clustered around a single venue or token, and one week's volume does not establish whether that pace will persist. The weekly total covers event contracts on the two platforms, not spot purchases or sales on crypto exchanges, so it measures activity separately from spot trading — and because the metric counts only event contracts, it does not rise or fall with spot exchange turnover.

Short-Term Bitcoin Contracts Fuel Activity

The report identifies short-term price moves as the main draw. A prediction contract ties a position to an outcome over a specified period, so activity can build around Bitcoin and other token prices as they fluctuate. Because each contract resolves over a defined window, trading can accumulate rapidly as price levels come into play. Bitcoin's continuous price movement creates frequent outcomes for contracts with short time horizons, while other tokens widen the range of available markets. That structure helps explain how a single week can set a record: short-horizon markets refresh continuously as prices move, generating far more tradable outcomes in a week than contracts that wait on a one-off event.

Exchanges Expand Into Prediction Markets as Spot Volumes Cool

Crypto exchanges are moving into prediction markets as spot activity weakens. The Financial Times has reported that crypto companies are adding prediction products while spot trading volumes decline. Some are building their own venues, while others are partnering with established operators. Event contracts give platforms an additional product inside familiar trading apps, helping them seek activity beyond spot trades and compete for customer attention.

Coinbase is among the exchanges offering such products, and its setup follows the partnership route: its crypto prediction markets are operated by Kalshi, according to Coinbase's help center — an arrangement that gives the exchange access to event contracts without building a marketplace operator itself. Coinbase's markets cover crypto prices and other outcomes, subject to regional availability and eligibility. Coinbase says its BTC and ETH price contracts settle using a 60-second CF Benchmarks average, while Kalshi determines outcomes under each contract's rules. The partnership illustrates how dedicated operators can power prediction products inside broader financial platforms, keeping customers engaged within an exchange's own app rather than on standalone venues.

State Disputes Over Sports Contracts May Shape Expansion

Sports-related contracts face legal challenges in several U.S. states. Regulators argue that event contracts tied to games fall under state gambling laws, while the platforms point to federal derivatives oversight.

Michigan's gaming regulator said Coinbase agreed to stop offering new sports contracts in the state and to close existing positions by October 10. The restriction applied only to sports contracts, not all event markets, and the agreement did not settle the wider legal dispute. As reported, dozens of states have taken legal action over sports-related contracts.

These disputes may shape how far crypto exchanges expand their prediction offerings. State-by-state restrictions can complicate nationwide launches, while unclear product boundaries raise compliance costs. Coinbase's Michigan agreement shows that access to one category can be limited as the broader product grows. Exchanges must weigh expected demand against legal risk before adding markets or opening them in new jurisdictions, and court rulings could change which products remain available. Two developments bear watching from here: future weekly totals will show whether the record trading pace persists, and the outcomes of state disputes will help determine which event contracts stay available.