US voters head to the polls on Tuesday for midterm elections that will help determine control of Congress — and with it, the future of cryptocurrency regulation in Washington.

The digital asset industry has spent roughly $176 million across more than 100 races this election cycle, according to an Oct. 27 Reuters report. Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz are among the chief financiers of the Fairshake political network.

The outcome could reshape the prospects of the stalled CLARITY Act and decide which lawmakers lead the committees that oversee the industry.

Democrats seek control of Congress

Republicans arrive at election day holding both chambers of Congress, with 219 seats in the House of Representatives and 53 in the Senate, according to the Blockchain Association's election dashboard. Democrats are seeking to flip those majorities, and prediction markets on Kalshi favored the party to win both the House and the Senate at the time of publishing.

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate races are on the ballot, and the results will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. Democratic control could bring heavier congressional scrutiny of Trump-linked crypto businesses and regulators' decisions, while Senate control would shape the confirmation of future presidential nominees to regulatory posts. Whoever holds the committee gavels would also shape whether a revived market structure bill reaches the floor.

Ohio, Nebraska and Texas draw crypto attention

Ohio's Senate race between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown stands out as a major test of crypto's political influence. Industry groups have reportedly spent more than $50 million opposing Brown, a longtime crypto critic who could return to a senior Senate committee role.

In Nebraska, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, a Senate Banking Committee member who has backed crypto-friendly legislation, faces independent Dan Osborn. Ricketts has benefited from nearly $11 million in Fairshake spending, according to the Washington Examiner.

Texas adds another closely watched contest, with Republican Ken Paxton facing Democrat James Talarico in a tight Senate race. As Cointelegraph previously reported, the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund has spent money supporting Paxton.

CLARITY Act faces challenges regardless of who wins

The CLARITY Act faces headwinds no matter which party prevails. A shift in congressional control could delay the crypto market structure bill, which has already struggled to advance under Republican leadership.

The legislation would divide oversight of crypto markets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and establish rules for intermediaries. The Senate failed to advance the bill in a 49–50 procedural vote on Sept. 15, short of the 60 votes required — a bar that can only be cleared with support from at least some members of the minority party.

Democratic Sen. Mark Warner cited insufficient safeguards against Trump profiting from his administration's crypto policies. Republican sponsors said their final draft incorporated substantial ethics concessions sought by Democrats.

"A change in control of Congress would most likely reset the timetable for the CLARITY Act," Christian Davies, group head of innovation and digital capital at Relm Insurance, told Cointelegraph.

Related: Crypto PAC spending before midterms possibly obscured after reported FEC hack

Ryan Kirkley, CEO of Global Settlement Network, agreed that the challenges extend beyond party control. "The CLARITY Act was already struggling to get through the Senate with Republicans in control, so clearly the problem goes beyond which party holds the majority," Kirkley said.

The industry has already secured a federal stablecoin framework through the GENIUS Act, which became law in July 2025. That leaves market structure legislation as the principal outstanding item on the industry's Washington agenda.

Bitcoin's midterm history offers few clues for traders

Bitcoin's (BTC) record around past midterm elections has become a talking point on social media, though analysts caution that historical declines offer little guidance on what could happen after Tuesday's vote.

"I'd be careful reading much into Bitcoin's record after past midterms. There haven't been enough cycles to call it a pattern, and the market is built differently now: ETF flows, institutional portfolios and global liquidity move the price far more than they used to," Michael Heinrich, CEO and co-founder of 0G Labs, told Cointelegraph.

Related: From Uptober to Hacktober: Are Bitcoin's seasonal patterns becoming obsolete?

Kirkley pointed instead to institutional flows, interest-rate expectations and market liquidity as the more immediate factors moving Bitcoin. "Bitcoin doesn't need a particular election result to succeed. It needs capital, confidence and a macro environment that gives investors a reason to take risk again," he said.

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