Crude oil opened the week lower and extended those losses as optimism strengthened around a potential US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows.

Iran has proposed a two-day framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for concessions from the United States, including sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and changes to the US military presence. The proposal represents a shorter timeline than the seven-day framework Tehran put forward a month ago. Markets interpreted the shortened timeline as a positive development, although Washington has not yet accepted the proposal and negotiations remain ongoing, leaving any formal US response as the key near-term trigger for oil prices.

Meanwhile, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continues to escalate, while Russia and Ukraine extended their reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure.

US-Iran negotiations remain the most important factor for oil markets: a breakthrough would likely trigger a significant selloff, while setbacks should keep prices supported. A de-escalation in the Saudi-Houthi conflict could also prompt a correction, though the downside would be limited by a continued US-Iran stalemate.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, crude oil (CFD contract) opened the week lower and extended its losses as hopes for a US-Iran deal strengthened. In the event of a pullback into the lower bound of the channel, buyers were expected to step in, with defined risk below the channel, to position for a rally toward the 110.00 resistance. Sellers, by contrast, would look for a break lower to increase bearish bets toward the 68.00 support.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4-Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, the price broke below an upward trendline and was testing a key support level around 99.50. Buyers were expected to defend that support, with defined risk below it, positioning for a rally into the 110.00 resistance, while sellers would need the price to break lower to extend bearish bets toward the lower bound of the channel.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Timeframe

The 1-hour chart offered little additional detail: buyers were viewed as having the better risk-to-reward setup around the support, while sellers would need a break of that level to extend the pullback to new lows. The red lines on the chart define the average daily range for the day.

Upcoming Catalysts

Monday brings the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, the calendar features the US Job Openings data alongside the US midterm elections. Wednesday includes the US ADP report and the US ISM Services PMI. Thursday brings the latest US Jobless Claims data, and the week concludes on Friday with the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. For oil, a commodity priced in US dollars, the significance of these releases largely runs through their influence on Federal Reserve policy expectations and the dollar, adding a macro layer to a week already dominated by geopolitical headlines.