Crude oil trimmed some of its losses in the previous session as the market appeared to recognize that President Donald Trump can still legally continue military operations against Iran even if Democrats control Congress. The distinction matters because it leaves the course of the conflict dependent on executive decisions rather than legislative ones.

The US-Iran situation remains largely unchanged. Trump said he has to decide whether to take further action against Tehran, adding that he would prefer not to destroy the rest of Iran.

According to Axios, Trump met with his national security team before making the comments. US Central Command (CENTCOM) is reportedly finalizing preparations for a potential resumption of major combat operations, although no new directive has been issued.

Diplomatic efforts, meanwhile, continue. Iran has reportedly submitted a new nuclear proposal to the United States through Qatar, but a senior Iranian official said Tehran would only discuss it once Washington meets its seven demands. Fars News also reported that Iran does not envisage further diplomatic steps until its conditions are met. The precondition underlines how wide the gap between the two sides remains.

The New York Times reported that Iran is reviewing proposals from mediators concerning its nuclear program, with Vice President JD Vance reportedly emerging as a key supporter of the Qatar-led mediation efforts.

Nevertheless, US military strikes remain an option, as Trump could consider limited strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities rather than broader attacks on energy infrastructure. For crude oil, the distinction is meaningful, since energy infrastructure is directly tied to physical supply.

Looking ahead, the focus will remain on US-Iran developments. According to the analysis, a breakthrough would significantly increase bearish momentum and take oil prices back to pre-war levels relatively quickly. An escalation, on the other hand, could trigger another rally on a rising risk premium — the extra compensation traders demand for holding oil while supply disruption remains a possibility — although there is also a chance it could prove short-lived if Trump launches limited strikes merely to save face before exiting the war.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, crude oil (CFD contract) extended its gains after bouncing from the key 87.00 handle. The broken channel could act as resistance if the price retests the bottom trendline. Sellers are expected to step in around the broken trendline, with a defined risk placed above it, targeting a drop below the 87.00 handle toward the 80.00 level. Buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price break higher to build bullish bets toward the 110.00 resistance next.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4-Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, a downward trendline is defining the bearish momentum. With neither a rejection nor a clean breakout so far, the line has become less useful. If another pullback reaches the 87.00 handle, buyers are expected to step in around that level, with a defined risk below it, keeping the 110.00 resistance as the target. Sellers, meanwhile, will look for a break lower to increase bearish bets toward the 80.00 handle next.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, a minor support zone sits around the 89.00 level, where the price has been rejected several times over the past few days. Buyers stepped in around the support, with a defined risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs. Sellers will want to see the price break lower to position for a drop below the 87.00 level next. The red lines on the chart define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

The trading week concludes with the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, but attention will remain fixed on US-Iran developments. The NFP report offers a monthly snapshot of US hiring that shapes Federal Reserve policy expectations and the dollar, while the sentiment survey gauges how consumers view the economy — both variables traders weigh for dollar-priced commodities such as crude oil, even as geopolitics dominates.