Kevin C. Smith, founder, CEO and CIO of Crescat Capital, has set a $20,000-per-troy-ounce price target for gold, saying the level could be reached in approximately four years under one of his core models.

Smith said the forecast is based on two independent macroeconomic models that arrive at the same target. One model compares global M2 money supply with the total above-ground stock of gold. The other uses a gold-to-S&P 500 ratio framework that assumes a 50% decline in the U.S. stock market, followed by dollar devaluation.

According to Smith, the timeline could be shorter than four years if current fiscal imbalances and geopolitical conditions accelerate gold’s move higher. Gold prices, however, are influenced by several variables at once, including interest rates, inflation, central bank buying, geopolitical events, investor demand and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Model One: Gold Versus Global M2 Money Supply

Smith’s first model examines the long-term relationship between global M2 money supply and the total above-ground stock of gold. M2 is a broad measure of money supply that includes cash, checking deposits and other liquid forms of money. Smith said the historical trend line between global M2 and above-ground gold has remained notably consistent over several decades.

The model also comes as central banks have been accumulating gold at an elevated pace in recent years. Smith argues that this accumulation supports the model’s projection. When the historical trend line is extended forward, he said it points to a $20,000 gold price in roughly four years.

My price target for gold is $20,000 per troy ounce based on two independent macro models. The first looks at the trend of global M2 money supply compared to the above-ground gold stock as shown in the chart below. With the precious metal now under accumulation by global… pic.twitter.com/lU6dK5lOkL — Kevin C. Smith, CFA (@crescatkevin) July 22, 2026

Smith said global M2 could rise further because of existing fiscal imbalances and the geopolitical backdrop. In his view, a faster expansion of money supply would reduce the time required for gold to reach his target. He also cited the combination of central bank gold purchases and monetary expansion as a potential tailwind for gold prices.

Model Two: Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio

Smith’s second model is based on the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio. The framework assumes what he described as a run-of-the-mill 50% decline in the U.S. stock market, along with a subsequent devaluation of the dollar.

The ratio compares the price of gold with the level of the S&P 500 and is often used by macro investors to assess the relative performance of hard assets versus equities over long cycles. A higher ratio can reflect gold outperforming stocks, stocks falling relative to gold, or both.

He said historical precedent supports this approach. Prior peaks in the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio, according to Smith, were triggered by stock market crashes that followed historically high large-cap equity valuations and were accompanied by significant dollar devaluation.

Smith said current equity valuations are near historic highs, while fiscal imbalances have reached record levels. Under his model, a 50% lower S&P 500 combined with a 5.25 gold-to-S&P 500 multiple would produce a $20,000 gold price.

That 5.25 multiple would be well below the 1980 peak of 7.58, but slightly above the 1933 peak of 4.76. Smith said current conditions suggest that a similar path could unfold again.

Timeline: Four to Seven Years, With Geopolitics as a Possible Accelerator

Smith’s first model implies a timeline of about four years for gold to reach $20,000 per troy ounce. He said that path could occur through fiscal and monetary forces alone, without relying on a stock market crash as a catalyst.

Historical comparisons provide a wider time frame. Smith noted that the period from the stock market peak to the subsequent peak in gold prices was 4.3 years from September 1929 to January 1934. A later cycle took seven years, from January 1973 to January 1980.

However, Smith said today’s geopolitical climate could shorten the process. He said game theory leads him to conclude that the $20,000 target could be reached in a step function at any moment, which he cited as a reason for urgency in positioning investors now.

Smith also said a market top may already have occurred or could be forming soon. In his view, investors who wait for confirmation could miss a significant portion of the move. As with any macro price target, the outcome depends on whether the underlying assumptions occur; there is no certainty that gold will reach Smith’s projected level.

Miners, Pullbacks and Crescat’s Metals Strategy

Smith said he remains confident in undervalued precious and critical metals miners. He said the multiple potential paths to $20,000 gold over the next seven years support Crescat’s focus on its activist metals exploration and development strategy.

He also described the recent pullback in the precious metals complex as an opportunity. According to Smith, Crescat’s precious metals strategy has outperformed its benchmarks since inception. He said Crescat had five of the top 16 performing hedge funds in the world last year, based on the Preqin database.

Smith said pullbacks like the one seen this year occur from time to time and can create entry points for new investors. He said the recent decline in precious metals markets and Crescat’s funds presents such an opportunity now.

Gold and the U.S. dollar often move in opposite directions, so a weaker dollar can support higher gold prices. However, other variables, including real interest rates and investor demand, also play major roles. That broader mix of monetary, fiscal and market factors is central to evaluating Smith’s models without treating any single indicator as determinative.