The Cook Political Report on Thursday released its latest assessment of competitive House districts nationwide, and the findings point to serious trouble for President Donald Trump and his party ahead of the midterm elections.

According to the nonpartisan outlet — one of the most closely followed names in political polling — the numbers show that voters are “eager” for “sweeping change.”

“A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall,” Cook writes. “It also finds an electorate eager to see a new Congress do more than simply hold President Donald Trump to account, but also to make fundamental changes to the political system.”

The survey covered 37 districts rated as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat — the tiers Cook uses to flag the seats most likely to decide House control, where a majority requires 218 of the chamber’s 435 seats. Those competitive districts went for Trump by an average of five points in 2024, yet Democrats now hold a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 49 percent to 47 percent. The generic ballot is a standard survey question asking respondents which party they would prefer to control Congress, making it a broad gauge of House sentiment.

“In other words,” the report explains, “a district that Trump carried by five points in 2024 would have a Democratic advantage of two points today — a seven-point swing in Democrats’ favor.”

Trump’s standing in these districts is weak. His overall disapproval rating there stands at 58 percent, and voters trust Democrats more to handle key issues such as the economy, inflation and the cost of living. Frustration also extends beyond the president himself: battleground voters are looking to remove anyone tied to the government as it currently stands. That mood carries added weight in a midterm calendar that has historically punished the party in power — with only a handful of exceptions since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in midterm elections.

As Cook explains, “When asked which candidate they would prefer to vote for — one who served as a check on Trump, one who would work with Trump or one who will focus on changing the political system overall — a plurality of voters (43 percent), including 59 percent of independents, picked the candidate focused on overhauling the political system.”

Additional findings reinforce that anti-establishment mood. More voters attribute high prices to political corruption than to corporate greed. Roughly half of battleground voters — including 22 percent of Republicans — say they would be more likely to support a candidate who backs a wealth tax on billionaires, while just 21 percent oppose such a measure.

The poll also found that these voters are more worried that Republicans will do nothing to put the brakes on Trump (52 percent) than that Democrats will focus solely on impeaching him if they win a majority (48 percent).

“Voters Trump for making many of the country’s problems worse, and they’re more worried about Republicans enabling him than Democrats over-correcting in opposition,” said pollster Patrick Toomey of New River Strategies. “But their frustration is broader and more systemic, and they’re looking for something beyond either enabling Trump or simply opposing him.” Cook periodically updates its district ratings in the run-up to Election Day, giving both parties a running benchmark for whether these early margins endure.