Conflict and climate change are combining to push food supply down and prices up around the world. As noted two weeks ago, the same pairing is impeding navigation across the globe. Climate change is no longer approaching; it has arrived, and its interaction with human folly in war is making matters worse.

A single headline can capture only a fragment of the story. Consider the warning that "Britain faces food shortages within months," as one article put it. The reason, according to the report: "The worst harvest since 1984 and a spike in livestock deaths have left many farmers without the cash needed to sow their fields for the coming year." Many farmers in Great Britain may not even be able to afford to plant crops next season. At present, a decision to plant would almost certainly cause farmers to lose money. Britain's situation also illustrates a broader vulnerability: a country that imports a large share of its food can no longer count on world markets to fill domestic gaps when other producers are suffering simultaneous shortfalls.

The underlying causes run deeper. One farm leader explained: "Rain has come too late for lost harvests and slashed yields, while livestock farmers are dealing with the worst bluetongue outbreak [a disease in sheep] to reach our shores." Climate change is likely involved, since warming temperatures tend to intensify both droughts and floods depending on location. Animal disease is also rising alongside warmer temperatures: "Bluetongue, a disease that causes fertility problems and deaths in sheep, has been particularly bad this year because high temperatures have led to a larger-than-normal number of midges, which spread the virus."

Meanwhile, the prices of fertilizer and diesel—both essential to modern mechanized farming—have skyrocketed. Costs are up because supplies of fertilizer and the oil from which diesel is made have been dramatically curtailed from the Persian Gulf area, a major source, following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attack on the country by the United States and Israel.

Diesel has also become scarce for another reason: in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil refineries, forcing Russia to temporarily halt all diesel exports. For context, Russia is the second-largest oil producer in the world after the United States and routinely exports large volumes of crude and refined products such as diesel.

Drought Strains American Agriculture

In the southwestern United States, long-term drought is drying up both the Colorado River—on which 40 million people, including many farmers and ranchers, depend for water—and the Rio Grande. The Rio Grande is a crucial source of water for agriculture and public water systems along much of its 1,900-mile course, from southwestern Colorado through New Mexico and then along the border between Texas and Mexico. Below the New Mexico–Texas border, the river at times runs nearly dry because so much water is being withdrawn amid an ongoing drought, which itself increases demand for water.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of August 26 drought was affecting large shares of U.S. cropland for key crops: barley (80 percent), durum wheat (62 percent), rice (61 percent), spring wheat (80 percent), sugarbeets (75 percent), sunflowers (80 percent), and winter wheat (56 percent). Cotton, a non-food crop, is also suffering, with 52 percent of cultivated area under drought conditions.

European Harvests Shrink

Devastating heatwaves and drought in Europe are dramatically reducing yields of commodity crops such as corn, rice, and soybeans, as well as vegetable crops. In France, vegetable production is down sharply for lettuce (35 percent), peas (40 percent), and broccoli (60 percent), according to reports on the European farming crisis. Corn harvests in France, one of Europe's largest producers, are expected to fall by 35 percent.

Brazil Shifts Sugar Toward Ethanol

In Brazil, falling sugar production is linked to a shift toward ethanol. Here the connection to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is direct. Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz has lifted prices for oil and especially for refined products such as gasoline. Most Brazilian gasoline-fueled automobiles and trucks are designed to run on high mixes of ethanol. In the wake of rising oil prices, the Brazilian government lifted the minimum ethanol requirement in the gasoline/ethanol blend from 30 to 32 percent. By comparison, U.S. gasoline generally contains about 10 percent ethanol. As long as ethanol remains cheaper than gasoline, Brazilian drivers benefit from higher-ethanol blends, and sugar mills increasingly find it more profitable to favor ethanol over sugar. The shift matters beyond Brazil, which is one of the world's largest sugar producers and exporters: when Brazilian cane is diverted into fuel rather than food markets, global sugar supplies tighten as well.

India's Weak Monsoon and El Niño

Elsewhere, production of sugar and other key crops such as cotton, soybeans, corn, and beans has been curtailed by the smallest monsoon rains in India in 15 years. India suspended sugar exports earlier this year to keep domestic prices in check—part of a pattern in which exporting countries restrict shipments to protect domestic consumers during shortages, a step that removes supply from world markets and puts further upward pressure on prices elsewhere. The emerging El Niño—expected to be the strongest on record and to peak in early 2027—could further weaken the Indian monsoon next year, and its effects could ripple across global agriculture, with both positive and negative consequences depending on location.

Sudan: Conflict and Climate Converge

In Africa, Sudan is a prime example of the intersection of conflict and climate change. The ongoing civil war, which began in 2023, has displaced millions and killed tens of thousands. Now the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has driven up fuel and fertilizer costs. On top of that, a drought—and an emerging El Niño that could make it worse—is robbing fields usually flooded by the Nile River of the water they need.

Wheat Under Fire in the Black Sea

Meanwhile, at the front of the Ukraine-Russia war, grain terminals and grain ships are being targeted, primarily threatening wheat exports to the world. That has sent wheat futures to their highest level in three years. Both Russia and Ukraine are large wheat exporters and have been attacking each other's grain terminals and ships. Together the two countries have in recent years accounted for roughly a quarter of the world's wheat exports, which is why disruption there reverberates through bread prices far beyond the region.

Conflict has always affected commodities depending on whether major producers or consumers were involved. But from here on, climate change will be a party to every conflict, affecting farm fields around the globe whether the countries where those fields are located are part of the fighting or not.

The implication is that it will become increasingly difficult to import one's way out of food shortages as the whole of world agriculture becomes affected. Few in positions of civilian or military leadership have yet to comprehend this.

By Kurt Cobb via Resource Insights