North American markets will operate on a split schedule on Monday, October 12, as Canada observes Thanksgiving, which falls on the second Monday of October, and the United States marks Columbus Day — recognized in many places as Indigenous Peoples' Day. The upshot for traders: US stock markets are fully open, while the US bond market is closed and Canadian markets shut for the holiday.

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will run regular sessions from 9:30 am to 4 pm Eastern, with no early close. Columbus Day is one of the federal holidays on which US equities stay open while the bond market stands down, producing a two-track session. Equity traders will have a full day to react to corporate news and weekend developments, though news flow is often light on Columbus Day because it is a federal holiday. At the same time, President Trump has used weekends — and long weekends — to attack Iran in the past, so that remains a possibility.

US fixed income follows a different calendar. SIFMA has recommended a full closure for dollar-denominated bond trading, covering Treasuries, corporate bonds and municipal securities. That is technically an industry recommendation rather than a mandatory shutdown, but it is the standard holiday convention. The Federal Reserve also observes the holiday.

In Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange and Montréal Exchange will all be closed, with regular trading resuming on Tuesday, October 13. Canadian bond and money markets also observe the Thanksgiving holiday.

The split schedule means Canadian investors can still see price moves in the US listings of interlisted companies while their Toronto-listed shares sit idle. Those moves can feed into Tuesday's Canadian opening — and can create a small opportunity.

Foreign exchange trading does not take holidays, but the combination of the Canadian holiday and reduced US participation could leave liquidity thinner than usual.

Futures traders should not confuse the cash bond holiday with a blanket futures shutdown. CME says it will publish settlement prices for CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX products at their normal times on Monday, leaving futures the open venue for Treasury-linked activity while the cash market sits out.

Overall, an uneven session is expected, though much will depend on weekend developments. The economic calendar is completely bare for North America on Monday, with Tuesday hardly better as existing home sales are the only notable release. The schedule picks up in a big way on Wednesday, when US CPI, a speech from Bowman and comments from the Bank of Canada's Macklem could carry more weight in light of Friday's weak jobs report.