Coinbase Global (COIN) shares slipped in after-hours trading Thursday after the cryptocurrency exchange posted a surprise profit for the third quarter, defying analyst expectations for a loss. Reports put the after-hours decline at between 3% and 5%, with the price near $156 in one account.

The stock closed near $158 in regular trading on Thursday. Even so, COIN has fallen 54% over the past 12 months.

Surprise Profit Beats Expectations

Coinbase reported earnings of $2.51 per share for the quarter, a result far above the consensus forecast. FactSet analysts had projected a loss of 23 cents per share.

Wall St Engine summarized the headline figures in a post on X:

COINBASE $COIN Q3'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $1.22B (Est. $1.23B) 🔴; -35% YoY
🔹 EPS: $2.51 (Est. -$0.06) 🟢
🔹 Transaction Rev: $590M (Est. $527M) 🟢; -44% YoY
🔹 S&S Revenue: $570M (Est. $561.5M) 🟢; -20% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $332.9M (Est. $290.2M) 🟢; -58% YoY
🔹 Net…

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) October 29, 2026

On the top line, revenue came in at $1.22 billion, according to FactSet, against estimates of $1.21 billion. CNBC reported revenue of $1.20 billion versus the $1.233 billion that LSEG analysts expected.

Net income was $718.7 million. Most of that came from unrealized gains on crypto assets held for investment — gains that reflect higher crypto prices rather than cash earnings.

What Is Behind the Profit

Strip out those gains and the picture changes. Adjusted net income was $77.7 million, down from $420.7 million a year ago. Bitcoin rose 39% during the quarter ended Sept. 30, lifting the value of Coinbase's crypto investment portfolio and driving much of the headline profit.

Trading activity told a different story. Spot trading volume was about $134.5 billion, short of the $137 billion analysts expected and roughly half of last year's level. Coinbase's share of trading volume nonetheless rose to 10.7% from 5.6% a year ago. In other words, the company won a bigger slice of a smaller pie.

Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev called the report “better than feared.” He also noted that the crypto market remains challenged.

Life Beyond Crypto Trading

Coinbase's newer business lines are carrying more of the load. Prediction markets, launched in January, now bring in $200 million in annualized revenue, with compound quarterly growth of 82% since launch. The number of traders on those markets rose 60% from the second quarter.

Subscription and services revenue, which includes USDC, was $570 million. That is down from $717 million a year ago, but it made up about half of net revenue, versus 41% last year.

Chief Business Officer Shan Aggarwal said the new products are “less correlated with crypto market volatility,” and that the diversification is showing up in results. The shift reflects the company's effort to reduce its dependence on volatile trading revenue.

Coinbase for Agents, a product aimed at users of AI agents, launched in early October. The company also earns revenue from traditional stock and fund trading. Aggarwal said fee compression could come as adoption grows, but Coinbase has not seen it yet. Some analysts expect fees to face pressure as Wall Street firms enter crypto.

Taken together, the quarter puts the focus on the difference between Coinbase's headline earnings and its underlying operating performance. Adjusted net income, spot trading volume, subscription and services revenue, and the contribution from newer products provide separate measures of how the business is performing when crypto-asset valuation gains are excluded.

Market and Regulatory Backdrop

The Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate in September. Coinbase had been one of the bill's biggest backers.

Bitcoin traded near $80,400 on Wednesday, down from above $122,000 last October. Coinbase stock closed near $158 on Thursday before sliding in after-hours trading.