Coinbase reported second-quarter revenue of $1.22 billion, falling short of analyst estimates of approximately $1.29 billion. Revenue also declined from near $1.5 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. Despite the miss, COIN shares recovered during trading and were up 3.59% at $163 as of press time, after initially falling about 7% in after-hours trading following the earnings release.

Transaction revenue declined 21% to $599.2 million, below estimates of roughly $635.1 million. Subscription and services revenue reached $555.1 million, also short of market expectations near $594.4 million. The company posted a net loss of $359.5 million for the quarter, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $207.8 million — marking Coinbase's 14th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

The earnings miss added to investor concerns, as Coinbase has now fallen short of top- and bottom-line expectations for several quarters. The revenue shortfall comes amid a broader pullback in crypto spot trading volumes across the industry, which has pressured transaction-fee income at major exchanges. Attention centered on softer trading revenue even as newer business segments showed growth.

Prediction Markets and USDC Activity Expand

Coinbase reported that prediction market contracts and revenue surged 106% from the prior quarter. The segment surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue during Q2. The company attributed the increase partly to its Binaries products, which launched late in the quarter. Daily traders on the platform tripled, and daily revenue quadrupled compared with May levels.

The exchange also reached a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume, representing the third straight quarter of market share gains despite softer industry-wide trading activity.

Chief Executive Brian Armstrong stated: "In Q2 we hit our third consecutive all-time high in crypto trading volume market share, proving our Everything Exchange can deliver in all market conditions."

Armstrong added, "Coinbase is no longer a bet just on the price of Bitcoin." He said crypto is reshaping trading, payments, and lending, with Coinbase positioned across those areas.

USDC activity remained a key contributor to Coinbase's business. Average USDC held across Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion, representing more than 30% of all circulating USDC. Coinbase noted that 88% of net revenue now comes from sources other than Bitcoin spot trading, with subscription and services revenue accounting for nearly half of total net revenue during the quarter. The shift toward recurring revenue from stablecoin reserves, blockchain rewards, and custodial services reflects a broader industry trend among crypto exchanges seeking to reduce dependence on cyclical trading fees.

COIN Stock Trading Levels

COIN stock traded near $163.58 after rebounding from the lower Bollinger Band and a marked demand zone. The stock has fluctuated between $154 and $168 following its late-June recovery. The price currently sits above the Bollinger Band midpoint, indicating improved short-term momentum. However, the post-earnings reaction may test whether buyers can maintain the current support area.

Immediate support stands near $154.46. A close below that level could weaken the recovery and expose the wider demand zone between $146 and $155. Additional selling pressure could push COIN toward the June low of approximately $140.

The first resistance zone ranges between $174 and $181. A daily close above that range could support a stronger move toward $209 to $222. Near-term price action remains tied to the $154 support area and the $174–$181 resistance zone. While Coinbase's market share gains, USDC growth, and prediction market expansion provide fundamental support, revenue weakness continues to weigh on investor sentiment.