Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC that Bitcoin reaching $400,000 by 2030 remains a “reasonable target,” despite BTC trading below $80,000 and around $77,000 at the time of his comments.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Thursday, Armstrong said he believes Bitcoin’s current down cycle has ended after lasting about a year. He pointed to the cryptocurrency’s often-cited four-year cycle, which he said typically includes a period of price gains and euphoria followed by a year-long downturn.

“We've actually just come across the one-year mark for this down period,” Armstrong said. “I personally believe that the bottom is in on Bitcoin in this most recent cycle,” following Bitcoin’s rise from around $60,000.

Armstrong also said that Bitcoin historically tends to see run-ups ahead of its halvings. The next halving is due in around 18 months, he said. “I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin,” he added.

A move to $400,000 would represent a fivefold increase in a little over three years. Coinbase has also been affected by the downturn, cutting 14% of its staff and missing second-quarter earnings as crypto trading activity slowed.

Waiting on Clarity

Armstrong expressed greater confidence in the outlook for U.S. crypto regulation. The Senate is scheduled to vote on the Clarity Act on September 15, and Armstrong said that, based on conversations with people involved, the bill is “ready to get a yes vote.” He said law enforcement groups, many banks and crypto companies support the legislation, and that concerns previously raised by Coinbase have been resolved.

The remaining dispute involves ethics rules related to the president’s family crypto ventures. The White House has proposed a provision Armstrong described as “unprecedented” for a sitting president, while Democrats are seeking divestiture. Armstrong said the discussions were active and close to a resolution, but “a little above our pay grade.”

Users of prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, are less optimistic, assigning a 17% chance that the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026:

Armstrong said the bill’s failure would not significantly change the regulatory outlook because the SEC and CFTC have said they are prepared to issue rules and innovation exemptions under existing authority. Either way, he expects regulatory clarity within a month.

He cited last year’s Genius Act as a precedent, saying more than 150 large companies integrated stablecoins in the three months after its passage. Armstrong said the Clarity Act would also enable tokenized equities and perpetual futures for U.S. customers.

Coinbase has been preparing for both developments. In June, it outlined plans for tokenized stock trading with automatic dividends, which Armstrong contrasted with rivals offering “some form of derivative or IOU.” The company is also developing options on crypto and equities. In May, Coinbase became the first U.S. exchange approved to offer crypto perpetual futures. Its executives have described the broader ambition as becoming the “everything exchange.”