The Senate is scheduled to vote on cloture for the Clarity Act at 2:15 p.m. ET Tuesday, a procedural step that requires 60 votes to advance H.R. 3633 to floor debate.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, the longtime Bitcoin proponent often called the "Bitcoin senator," says Democrats are out of reasons to reject the Clarity Act—but supporters of the landmark cryptocurrency legislation may be out of time. The revised bill folds in more than 120 Democratic demands, including new ethics restrictions that Trump agreed to accept, she noted.

Polymarket's odds on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 fell to 19% Tuesday from 35% a day earlier, as Bitcoin slipped back below $77,000 ahead of the vote.

'Now or never'

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, Lummis argued that the final Clarity Act text gives Democrats what they asked for: more than 120 negotiated changes and a new ethics framework covering the president, vice president, members of Congress and federal judges. Her message, in short, was to take yes for an answer.

She cautioned, however, that if lawmakers fail to gain enough support from Democrats to clear the cloture vote—the Senate proceeding that would end debate and move the bill to a final vote—there is not going to be a next time.

"It's now or never for the Clarity Act," Lummis posted on X.

It's now or never for the Clarity Act. Dems can lock in 120+ negotiated wins: a historic ethics agreement covering the President, VP, Congress & federal judges, plus the certainty consumers and this industry need. To get there, Democrats need to join us in voting yes at 2:15.

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) September 15, 2026

Lummis told reporters earlier on Tuesday that if the cloture vote fails, "I think we're done," according to Punchbowl. "It's over. Because we've been working on this bill for over a year, and we've given them over 120 of their requests. That's enough," she reportedly said.

A year in the making

The Clarity Act is the crypto industry's long-sought market structure bill, splitting oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and giving most tokens a clear regulatory home for the first time. In practical terms, that home would determine which agency writes and enforces the rules for most digital-asset activity—the "certainty consumers and this industry need" that Lummis cited in her final push. The bill has been under negotiation for more than a year. The House passed its version in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee followed in May 2026, clearing the measure 15-9 with only two Democratic votes.

Tuesday's vote is a cloture motion on H.R. 3633, not final passage. It requires 60 votes to end debate and move the bill to the floor, meaning Republicans need roughly seven Democrats to cross over given their 53-seat majority. To win over remaining holdouts, the White House agreed to new provisions barring elected officials, judges and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets—rules enforceable by state attorneys general, with no expiration date.

Odds keep swinging

Prediction markets have whipsawed all week. Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 moved to 35% on Monday after the final text dropped, then fell back to 19% on Tuesday once Democrats circulated a counterproposal. Traders currently see a 55% chance that more than 50 senators vote yes today, but only a 32% chance the bill actually clears the 60-vote bar.

Predictors on Myriad set the odds as low as 17.5%—a bit higher than the day's low of around 12%.

Not every Democrat is convinced the ethics language goes far enough. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Banking Committee's top Democrat, plans to argue on the floor that the new rules still leave gaps around enforcement and don't clearly cover the Trump family's World Liberty Financial venture. Several Democratic holdouts have said the same about consumer protections and illicit-finance safeguards, even after Republicans revised the bill twice over the recess. The counterproposal and Warren's planned floor argument are the immediate items to watch as the 2:15 p.m. ET vote approaches.

If cloture fails, the bill is effectively dead for 2026, with midterm campaigning set to consume the legislative calendar soon after—leaving unresolved the question of which regulator oversees most tokens, the very ambiguity the bill was written to resolve. Supporters and community bankers have spent weeks lobbying senators directly in their home states over the bill's remaining provisions, including stablecoin yield rules that still worry the banking industry.

Crypto markets today

Traders are betting on uncertainty. Bitcoin sits at $76,212, down 3.3% and roughly 7% off its September high, while ether has dropped 4.64% to $2,414.55 and XRP is off 2.61% at $1.38. The total crypto market cap has slipped 2.99% to $2.6 trillion, even as the Fear & Greed Index reads 65, still in "greed" territory.

Derivatives desks are seeing the volatility up close. The market logged $636.89 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours as the bearish mood increased, with liquidations split between $466.19 million in long positions and $170.69 million in shorts.

The cloture vote is set for 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday.