The U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), is approaching a pivotal Senate vote scheduled for 16 days from now, and signs of eroding bipartisan support are drawing significant attention to the bill's prospects.

The legislation has already cleared the House of Representatives and advanced through the Senate Banking Committee. Its central aim is to draw a clear line between the regulatory jurisdictions of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets, a division of authority that the crypto industry has long sought from Congress. The ambiguity the bill targets is longstanding: in the absence of a statutory framework, digital asset classification has often been assessed case by case under decades-old securities law tests and enforcement actions, leaving exchanges and token issuers without a definitive pathway to compliance. Under the bill's framework, digital asset commodities would largely fall under the CFTC's oversight, while assets deemed securities would remain with the SEC.

Despite this legislative progress, the Act's ultimate fate remains uncertain. Regulatory agencies have continued developing their own frameworks independently of congressional action, an indication that regulators are adjusting to ongoing legislative uncertainty rather than waiting for statutory direction.

Market Signals Point to Diminishing Support

Recent market pricing suggests that confidence in the bill's passage is declining. Current prediction-market pricing reflects a 13.5% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026, a notable decrease from previous levels. The shift comes amid reports that bipartisan backing for the measure has weakened, which could materially affect its chances of reaching the President's desk. Passage of a market-structure bill would have practical consequences for how trading platforms register, which regulator examines them, and what disclosure obligations apply to token offerings — issues that currently depend heavily on agency discretion.

What to Watch

The upcoming Senate vote will be a critical indicator of the Act's future, with particular attention on the positions of key political figures such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Tim Scott, the ranking member relevant to the banking committee's jurisdiction. Observers should also monitor any statements or moves by the White House, especially from President Trump and his advisers, which could sway the legislative process in either direction. Senate scheduling dynamics, including floor time constraints and potential amendment negotiations, are also relevant to whether the vote proceeds as planned.

The evolving regulatory landscape may offer further insight into the broader trajectory of U.S. crypto policy. With agencies such as the SEC and the CFTC taking proactive steps on digital asset rules, their actions could shape market structure regardless of whether the CLARITY Act ultimately becomes law.