Clarity Act Expected to Reach Senate Vote Before August 7
Key Takeaways
- •The Clarity Act is expected to face an initial Senate vote before the August 7 recess date, although final passage before recess appears unlikely.
- •The bill has not been filed for cloture and still lacks the 60 votes needed to advance in the Senate.
- •Seven pro-crypto Democrats have objected to the current ethics provision, and Senator Thom Tillis is leading bipartisan talks on revisions.
- •The National Fraternal Order of Police endorsed the legislation, becoming the third law enforcement group to support the bill or drop opposition.
- •Polymarket still prices the bill’s odds of passage this year below 40%, even as observers expect an initial vote by August 3.
The Crypto Market Structure Clarity Act is expected to come up for a Senate vote before August 7, when the US Senate is scheduled to begin its recess.
Punchbowl News senior reporter Brendan Pedersen said this on X (formerly Twitter), while noting that the path forward remains difficult. His comments came after Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Friday that he does not expect legislation to pass before the recess. Pedersen said an initial Senate vote could still happen before then, even if the bill does not ultimately advance, which would keep the measure in play for a crowded end-of-session calendar.
Support for the Clarity Act Improved Over the Weekend
Senate Republicans released an updated version of the legislation last week, but the bill has not yet been filed for cloture. That likely reflects the fact that the current version does not yet have the 60 votes needed in the Senate.
Since the revised text was released, seven pro-crypto Democrats have publicly opposed the ethics provision, saying it is too weak. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has also called for stronger ethics provisions.
CryptoinAmerica journalist Eleanor Terret said Tillis is now leading bipartisan talks on a new version of the ethics provisions. For Republicans, the challenge is to negotiate changes that can satisfy both Democrats and the White House.
Some Republican senators have also not yet confirmed their positions. Terret said Senator Mitch McConnell is expected to remain absent, while Senators Rand Paul and Josh Hawley have not confirmed support. Both Republicans voted against the GENIUS Act.
There was also a positive development for the bill over the weekend. The National Fraternal Order of Police endorsed the legislation, becoming the third law enforcement group to either support the Clarity Act or withdraw its opposition.
That endorsement could help persuade Democratic Senators Mark Warner and Catherine Cortez Masto. Both senators have said their votes depend on whether law enforcement concerns are addressed, making the ethics and enforcement language a central part of the whip count rather than a side issue.
The Bill Faces a Tight Senate Timeline
Because cloture has not yet been filed, observers say any passage during this Senate session would likely require an extension. Pedersen and Terret both said that moving the bill forward could require the Senate to delay its recess.
Pedersen said he does not expect that to happen, since any agreement to extend floor time would require unanimous consent. He added that hardline opponents of the bill, including Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy, are unlikely to agree.
At the same time, crypto advocacy groups continue to lobby for passage. The Crypto Council for Innovation recently published a post aimed at countering myths about the Clarity Act, while the Digital Chamber said the Senate has ten days to pass the measure.
Even with the recent momentum, the market remains unconvinced. The odds of passage this year are still below 40% on Polymarket. Still, many observers expect an initial vote by August 3.
CryptoinAmerica report