Citi Raises Strategy Price Target to $240 as Higher Bitcoin Forecast Lifts MSTR Outlook

Citi has raised its price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $240 from $136 while keeping a Buy rating on the stock. The revision, circulated on Oct. 2, 2026, follows the bank's decision to lift its 12-month Bitcoin forecast, with Citi now expecting $BTC to reach approximately $113,400. Citi's updated valuation also assumes that the premium investors are willing to pay for Strategy relative to its underlying $BTC holdings will expand.

The new MSTR target represents a 76.5% increase from Citi's previous $136 estimate. With Strategy closing around $160.50 on Oct. 1, a move to $240 would require roughly another 49.5% gain. That gap reflects both components of the bank's model, which splits the potential upside between a higher Bitcoin price and an expansion in Strategy's mNAV premium. As with any sell-side valuation, the figure is a model-based estimate built on stated inputs rather than a guarantee, which makes the underlying assumptions as relevant to readers as the target itself.

The update was on X by the market-news account Walter Bloomberg:

$MSTR – CITI RAISES STRATEGY TARGET TO $240 ON HIGHER BITCOIN FORECAST

Citi raised its Strategy price target to $240 from $136, maintaining a Buy rating after lifting its 12-month Bitcoin forecast 39% to $113,400.

Citi sees roughly 34% upside contribution from Bitcoin…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 2, 2026

Bitcoin Appreciation Accounts for Most of Citi's MSTR Upside

Citi sees about 34% of MSTR's potential upside coming from Bitcoin appreciation, making it the largest driver of the revised target. That assumption follows the bank's decision to raise its 12-month Bitcoin forecast by roughly 39%, from $82,000 to approximately $113,400.

Strategy's stock has historically moved closely with Bitcoin because $BTC represents the core asset on its balance sheet. The company also uses equity, preferred securities, and debt to fund its treasury strategy, which can amplify changes in Bitcoin's value at the common-stock level. As a result, Citi's higher $BTC forecast directly increases the value the bank assigns to MSTR. This linkage is typical of how Bitcoin-treasury companies are analyzed: when a bank's outlook for the underlying asset shifts, valuations built on that asset tend to be revised in step.

Citi Also Expects Strategy's mNAV Premium to Expand

Another 16% of the expected upside comes from Citi's assumption that Strategy's mNAV multiple will increase. mNAV compares Strategy's market valuation with the net value of its Bitcoin holdings and other balance-sheet items. A figure above 1.0 means investors are valuing MSTR at a premium to the underlying net assets. Because Strategy's principal asset is Bitcoin, that multiple effectively captures how much extra value the market assigns to the company beyond its immediate holdings. Premiums of this kind are not static: they reflect how the market weighs the company's structure and its record of adding Bitcoin exposure per share, which is why the multiple can serve as a useful gauge of how investors view the stock beyond the value of its coins.

Citi's updated model assumes an mNAV of about 1.24x. The bank also increased what it calls its Bitcoin Yield Multiple to 4.0x from 2.5x, giving Strategy a higher valuation for its ability to increase Bitcoin exposure per share through capital-market activity.

The two components broadly explain Citi's new MSTR target. A roughly 34% benefit from its Bitcoin assumption combined with about 16% from mNAV expansion produces close to the 50% upside needed to move MSTR from around $160.50 to $240.

Strategy Remains Highly Sensitive to Bitcoin

Citi's target therefore depends heavily on Bitcoin reaching the bank's higher forecast and on MSTR maintaining a premium to its underlying $BTC value. The $240 figure is contingent on both pillars of the model holding: the $113,400 Bitcoin assumption and the expanded mNAV assumption. If Bitcoin underperforms the $113,400 assumption or Strategy's mNAV contracts instead of expanding, the valuation model would change. Conversely, stronger Bitcoin performance or a larger MSTR premium could alter the upside case.

For readers tracking the call, those two pillars are also the practical signposts: where Bitcoin trades relative to Citi's $113,400 12-month mark, and whether Strategy's market value sits at, above, or below a 1.24x multiple of its net holdings, will show how the model's assumptions are holding up as the forecast window progresses.

For now, Citi's latest update raises both sides of the equation: a higher Bitcoin forecast and a higher valuation multiple for Strategy, resulting in the jump from a $136 MSTR target to $240.