Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating and a $140 target for Circle stock.

The firm said USDC supply rose by $1.7 billion, reinforcing its view that Circle’s stablecoin growth outlook remains intact.

Bernstein also said Circle’s growth can continue regardless of the outcome of the CLARITY Act. The firm maintained its Outperform rating and $140 price target for Circle despite uncertainty around the legislation, arguing that rising USDC adoption and broader stablecoin activity should support the company’s expansion.

USDC Growth Strengthens Circle Outlook

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said Circle’s growth cycle can continue even if the CLARITY Act is not passed. The firm kept its $140 price target, which implies roughly 59% upside from Circle’s Friday closing price of $87.98.

The outlook follows renewed growth in USDC supply after several months of limited expansion.

According to Bernstein, USDC supply increased by about $1.7 billion over the past week.

The analysts pointed to several areas of growth across digital finance, including stablecoin payments, tokenized assets, blockchain-based capital markets, and emerging agent-driven transactions.

USDC is also gaining utility across decentralized finance and tokenized markets. Bernstein said the stablecoin is being used as collateral across DeFi, tokenized equities, real-world-asset perpetual futures, and prediction markets.

Stablecoin transaction volumes are also expanding across the broader market. Bernstein estimated that adjusted stablecoin activity reached $11 trillion in 2025 and is tracking toward $17 trillion annually through July.

That figure represents about 60% year-over-year growth, excluding bots and high-frequency trading activity. Bernstein said the expansion in stablecoin usage is a major driver of Circle’s longer-term growth potential.

The Block reported that Bernstein analysts rate Circle “Outperform” with a $140 target, saying the company’s growth cycle does not depend on progress on the CLARITY Act. The analysts cited $1.7 billion in USDC supply growth over the last week and increasing market share in stablecoin transaction volumes. pic.twitter.com/zZvLZ1U9Uo

— The Block (@TheBlockCo) August 24, 2026

Circle is also building infrastructure for automated payments through its Agent Stack platform. The service reportedly supports more than 900 paid services, while USDC accounts for roughly 99% of x402 agent-payment volume.

For investors tracking the sector, the note underscores that Circle’s near-term narrative is now tied not only to regulation but also to whether stablecoin usage keeps broadening across payments, trading, and tokenized finance. That matters because Circle’s business is linked to USDC circulation and activity, so sustained adoption can support revenue drivers even when legislative timing remains unclear.

CLARITY Act Outcome Remains Secondary

Bernstein said Circle’s investment case does not depend on Congress passing the CLARITY Act. The legislation remains an important regulatory catalyst, with a Senate vote expected on September 15.

The analysts said regulatory intervention from the SEC and CFTC could accelerate if lawmakers reject the legislation. Bernstein therefore expects Circle to benefit from regulatory developments under either outcome.

Stablecoin rewards are among the legislation’s key considerations for issuers and financial institutions. If the bill does not pass, third-party reward programs would continue under existing arrangements.

If it does pass, Bernstein said stablecoin rewards could be more directly tied to user activity. The firm said either scenario remains manageable for Circle and its USDC business.

Competition remains a key risk for Circle’s valuation, according to Bernstein. Rival stablecoin models, including consortium-based approaches, could pressure margins and challenge Circle’s market position.

Even so, Bernstein continues to see substantial upside from rising stablecoin adoption. Its $140 target reflects confidence that Circle’s growth can continue independently of the timing of the legislation.