Journalist and podcaster Chuck Todd, who moderated NBC's "Meet the Press" for nearly a decade before turning to podcasting, said President Donald Trump is producing a highly favorable political environment for Democrats in red and swing states as Republicans labor to sell their message to voters ahead of the midterms.

"I think back to a couple of midterms that I covered, where the president was unpopular. In 2006, George W. Bush, in 2010, Barack Obama — both of those presidents were self-aware of their unpopularity. And they at least tried to practice what I call 'do no harm politics.' That's not Donald Trump," Todd told the anchors of CNN News Central. The historical parallel is a familiar one: Bush's Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress in 2006, and Obama's Democrats lost the House in 2010 — in line with the postwar pattern in which the president's party sheds seats at the midterms, with 1998 and 2002 the main exceptions.

Todd offered his own analysis of the Senate battleground — where Republicans will be defending a narrow majority in November — which he put at roughly 12 races on the outer edge of competitive, including Kansas, South Dakota, and New Hampshire. Eleven of those 12 states, Todd said, count Canada as either their No. 1 or No. 2 trading partner — a major problem now that Trump has declared economic war on Canada this week. Canada has long ranked among the top U.S. trading partners, alongside Mexico and China, so a trade fight with Ottawa lands directly in state economies rather than staying inside Washington.

"So, this is across the board. I mean, this is our neighbor to the north, and more than half the states count Canada as that," Todd said. "Then you layer on the anger that the beef industry has. Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, they're all breach states for Democrats, but they're not out of the question. So, take Iowa, a state that has the beef issue and Canada is the No. 1 trading partner, right? It is a double whammy. Ditto on a South Dakota. Ditto on Nebraska."

"Look at what the president has already done," Todd added. "Never mind the Iran war itself, which is driving up fuel prices. And who pays fuel prices sort of more acutely? Those that drive more, those that live in rural states. What states did I just talk about? Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota. So now you've got a triple whammy of Trump policies: His trade war with Canada. This decision on beef [deal with Argentina] and his decision to go to war with Iran. These aren't things you're going to be able to easily say, 'well, this is we're still trying to clean up after Biden.'" The beef piece of that equation lands on an industry already under historic strain: the U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size since the early 1950s while retail beef prices sit near record highs, fueling producer anger over the Argentina import deal.

Over the last 48 hours, Todd said, more elected Republicans have already begun distancing themselves from certain Trump policies. A Republican nominee in Wisconsin — a Trump endorsee, no less — blasted Trump's import deal with Argentina, while two Senate candidates in New Hampshire have pulled back from Trump's trade war with Canada.

"So you're going to start to see more Republicans feel like they have no choice if they want to speak to the independent swing voter to find some distance with the president," Todd said. "… did you catch his comment when somebody said, 'hey, you know, the American industry is hurting. And [Trump] goes, 'well, so are Argentinian ranchers.' And you're like, 'that's not very America first.'"

The full segment is available on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4r8ljparC0M