China has converted one of its long-standing strategic weaknesses — a heavy dependence on imported oil — into a source of geopolitical power during the war with Iran, according to a report published by The New York Times.

"One of the most important lessons from the war with Iran is one that few saw coming," write Times reporters Rebecca Elliot and Keith Bradsher. "The conflict has made clear that China, which has long been highly vulnerable to oil supply shocks, has managed to transform that weakness into a surprising source of geopolitical power."

That vulnerability was structural. China is the world's largest crude oil importer, with much of its supply shipped from the Middle East through maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the country exposed to disruptions far beyond its borders. According to the report, Chinese leaders anticipated the problem well in advance. Beijing stockpiled large quantities of crude oil, expanded its refining capacity and invested heavily in alternatives to fossil fuels. Then, in the early months of President Trump's war with Iran, China cut off supplies of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to neighboring countries in order to preserve those resources for itself.

The Times reports that the shift carries "big implications for the global energy industry, where oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the United States — not importers like China — have traditionally held most of the cards."

Former U.S. officials told the newspaper that the development also leaves Taiwan — a U.S. ally viewed as a potential Chinese target — in significantly greater danger as a result of the war. Already dominant in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, China now appears to hold an unparalleled position across the energy landscape. As a result, officials say U.S. threats to restrict Chinese access to oil "may no longer deter leaders in Beijing from taking aggressive steps like invading or blockading Taiwan."

"If they come to feel that in this domain, they are less vulnerable than they and many others may have assessed previously, that is a profound and important shift in one of the key inputs to how China makes decisions about its global strategy," said Julian Gewirtz, a former White House and State Department official who worked on China issues in the Biden administration.

While the Trump administration moved to crack down on renewable energy alternatives at home, China paired its massive oil reserves and refining capacity with heavy investment in new fuel alternatives. That combination allowed the country to "slash oil purchases by 23 percent in the first six months of the war with Iran" compared with the same period the year before, according to customs data — a steep drop in purchases for the world's largest crude importer.

Meanwhile, many other countries — a large number of them U.S. allies — remain heavily reliant on Middle East crude. The report says this leaves them with either reduced access to oil or at risk of financial strain from purchasing it at higher global prices.

China had not been widely recognized as a major player in global oil exports, and its sudden ability to throttle its own imports "caught nearly everyone in the oil industry by surprise," the Times reports.

"This is a power that nobody thought China had," said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. "Going forward, it's going to be really interesting to see: What does China do with this newfound power?"

The report adds that China is already using its advantage, redirecting exports away from U.S. allies including Australia and the Philippines this spring.

Source: Alternet