A Reuters analysis offers a wider view of the oil market beyond the headline standoff around the Strait of Hormuz, showing China acting as the main shock absorber for about 5 million barrels per day of lost Middle East supply. Instead of that disruption showing up as a larger Asian or global price spike, much of the effect has been absorbed by Beijing.

That matters for how much upside risk premium is currently reflected in crude prices. China's crude stockpile, estimated at roughly 1.2 billion barrels or more — built over more than a decade of strategic reserve expansion and commercial storage — gives it room to curb imports for much longer than most consumers could sustain, masking part of the physical tightness that the Hormuz closures would otherwise create. For comparison, the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds around 400 million barrels, and major Asian importers such as India, Japan, and South Korea operate with far smaller buffers despite comparable dependence on Middle East crude.

The key test now appears to be September. Kpler's data suggests Middle East flows into China will tighten again as the ceasefire breakdown between Trump and Tehran, along with the tanker strike reported earlier, takes several weeks to work through shipping patterns. If China slows its stockpile drawdown or shifts more decisively toward non-Middle East barrels, that would tighten the marginal market and support firmer prices. If Chinese restraint continues, it would keep obscuring the true scale of the Hormuz disruption for longer than the conflict headlines alone imply.

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China's stockpiles are quietly absorbing the Hormuz shock, and September's import data will show whether that can continue.

A Reuters analysis found that China has absorbed almost all of Asia's crude import decline caused by reduced Middle East shipments during the Iran war.

China's July crude arrivals rose to 8.41 million barrels per day from June's near-decade low of 7.12 million bpd, but they were still 24.3% below the same month a year earlier. Combined June and July imports averaged 7.78 million bpd, which was 4.21 million bpd below the 11.99 million bpd average recorded in the three months before the conflict began.

The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, and the war escalated to the point that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. The waterway had carried about 20% of the world's crude oil and refined products. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased shipments from ports outside the strait — using pipelines such as Saudi Arabia's East-West crude line and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah link — but the analysis found that regional flows are still down by about 5 million bpd.

Because most Middle East crude exports go to Asia, the region's total oil imports fell to 22.82 million bpd in July, according to Kpler data. That was still about 4 million bpd below the pre-war average, even though it improved from April's decade low. The analysis said Asia's overall import losses over the past two months are almost exactly matched by China's own import decline, indicating that Beijing has effectively absorbed the regional shortfall on its own.

Some of the pullback reflects China's long-established tendency to reduce purchases when prices rise, with Brent crude reaching a four-year high of 126.41 dollars a barrel on April 30, just as June and July cargoes were being arranged. However, Reuters said the scale of the reduction is unprecedented and has been made possible by China's crude stockpile, estimated at 1.2 billion barrels or more, which allows Beijing to sustain lower imports for an extended period.

The analysis expects a modest recovery in August as cargoes that exited the strait during a brief US-Iran ceasefire are delivered. Kpler estimates China's Middle East imports will rise to 2.71 million bpd in August.

September is expected to provide a clearer signal, since flows are likely to tighten again after the ceasefire collapsed and shipping through Hormuz fell sharply. That would leave Chinese refiners either drawing down stockpiles further or sourcing more barrels from outside the Middle East.